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To: Larry S. who wrote (47705)4/12/2003 12:33:55 PM
From: BWAC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
I like the concept of all 3 companies. But the valuations are still out of whack in my opinion. By far. Which means nothing at all to many of their investors and speculators. Me? I have no idea why or how these companies remain able to stay so highly valued. Name recognition maybe? Segment leaders maybe? Lure of potential maybe? All 3 are fine companies, its just the valuation. YHOO and EBAY are the best. AMZN is the weakest concept wise.

YHOO is sitting at $15 Billion valuation. I don't think I could pay more than about $5 Billion and even that is high.

EBAY is a $28 BILLION company! That will earn best case about $350 Million this year. Let me know when it gets down to $10 Billion or $30 per share.

AMZN is sill holding a $10 Billion valuation, and best I can figure hasn't made much more than a dime yet. Price to Sales ratio of 2.5 Its just a retailor. With theoretical low physical capital overhead. Let me know when it is cut by 2/3rds.

For my $53 Billion now, I'll take TGT at $29 Billion, BBY at $9 Billion, ODP at $3 Billion, EDS at $8 Billion, and NVLS at $4 Billion instead.



To: Larry S. who wrote (47705)4/12/2003 5:40:01 PM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
these cult stocks will continue to make many beat their heads against the wall

AMZN especially
if they make a ton of money over the next 5-10 years they may finally make up the loss since inception

but one of Legg Mason's managers made the talking head circuit this week

now remember Bill Miller at that firm is the only fund manager to beat the S+P for 12 straught years
and they are a well respected firm

still, they are the largest holder of AMZN stock with in excess of 50mm shares
and still say "it is a great buy today"

as to the option expense comment

my favorite continues to be NVR

virtually every dime they make goes to a few insiders
well over $500mm in just a couple of years
so the equity never goes up

the company buys back $100mm worth of shares (which props the price) then the insiders exercise $100mm (as low as $10 a share for say $340)so the price falls back a bit

the company buys back $300mm worth of shares (which props the price) then the insiders exercise $300mm (as low as $10 a share for say $340)so the price falls back a bit

the company buys back $150mm worth of shares (which props the price) then the insiders exercise $150mm (as low as $10 a share for say $340)so the price falls back a bit

now they have the next $150mm buyback in place

now why on earth would independent directors allow this?
it could not be that 7 of them have received 1,000's of cheap options
and have got a fre gift of $1-5mm in just a year or two

naw! never happen

it is a truism that some stocks never (or not for many many years) reflect reality

hell my obsession of many years ago ZIXI (used to be CUST) is still trading
anb they not only have not made a profit over 5 years but never had any revenus or in reality an actual product