Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Currents of Currency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (31)	4/13/2003 2:38:21 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 594

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Deficit For the month of February 2003 Millions Millions Country Name of U.S. $ of U.S. $ CHINA -7,579.42 -17,000.75 JAPAN -5,315.77 -10,536.13 CANADA -4,332.84 -9,285.76 MEXICO -3,900.26 -6,917.20 FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY -2,503.46 -5,188.82 IRELAND -1,281.34 -2,737.97 ITALY -1,068.62 -2,134.62 TAIWAN -1,028.68 -2,410.87 SAUDI ARABIA -1,020.15 -2,282.14 MALAYSIA -964.33 -2,135.00 The Yuan is pegged to the US dollar so currency movements make little difference to exporters in China tied to the US. .When it will make a difference is when Chinas labor costs start to increase. Canada and Europe in terms of dollars have become more costly trading partners in the last year. The Yen is hard to gear as the BOJ's habit of tinkering hampers direction. I view the Yen as a market trade currency. I suppose many in Japan do too as they invest heavily in the US. We have controlled US inflation by reducing our labor cost using other surplus labor markets. The dollars of these nations have flowed back to this economy aiding us and securing others as our political and economic status was deeply admired. Since 9/11 that has changed no other group has ever entered our nation and attacked our soil. We left an imprint on others in world war 11 we the US being a nation that upheld the rights of all. Our government costs have escalated every day since the WTC. Protection does not come without cost and neither does war. We need a robust economy to meet the increased debt. We also need something to perk up the economy as the only thing I see as being robust is housing which is debt driven. Ths difficulty in stats when you use average figures the cost of a desert house with no running water at $5.000 whacks a whammy to the property in Bel Air cost of $20m. Sort of like saying real estate has gone up by 7% nationwide. The greatest percentage of growth comes from those within an economy that can generate income that extends beyond self. In real estate the only area that has started to drop in value in is the over million mark. This states that the people who create the most dollars for the economy aren't creating as many as they were. I know the job market has not improved in So CA. I know that MacDonalds is in trouble the nutritional composition is about par with cheap fast food, The fast food industry is seeing growth in more costly places a different income group with more dollars but cost on time, Interest rates I feel will go up. There are too many dollars and most of them are going into mortgage debt finance which by virtue of its own growth accidentally increases the cost of doing business and creates its own inflation. The next tinker the market attempt if I am right will be to slow down the growth in house financing as growth is not occurring in areas that are most beneficial to the economy. I am thinking the US dollar is in for long range trouble. You have to pay bills and cash has to come from somewhere. reduce tax one way it has to go up another. MacDonalds is telling the story of cash allocation. There is very little debt flexibility left in our lower income. Iraq from a internal monetary standpoint is going to be worse off than they were, They are in for serious inflation, which is apt to extend throughout the mid east. The profit potential is huge in the area short term but the recipients are few. Scary stuff as we say good bye to the purpose of UN and leave a useless name. The US has one thing going for her she is the worlds largest consumer so its not to sharp for other nations to slash their throats financially. However if one is not careful and slashes their own throat economically the financial benefits clause changes shape.