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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (8132)	4/14/2003 7:55:34 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<<Perhaps on the positive side. There will be competition. Not only from Enbrel, as you pointed out, but also from J&J's Remicade, which agent actually is the one with the most impressive clearance figures so far.>> You can count on competition from abt and humira as well.

To: Icebrg who wrote (8132)	4/14/2003 9:02:07 AM
From: nigel bates	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Re XOMA, don't forget the potential of license income from any phage display derived mAbs (with the exception of Humira), FWIW. Nonetheless, I tend to agree with your basic premise. But once the stock found its way into the portfolio, things start to look somewhat more shady. (That is often the case with me) With you on that one, too.

To: Icebrg who wrote (8132)	4/14/2003 2:17:45 PM
From: keokalani'nui	Respond to of 52153

Re: DNA Ice, Another knock on DNA is it is today more or less a financing vehicle for Roche; and Roche has shown no kindness to the minority in trafficing in dna's shares. I like Roche on its own, however. Wilder

To: Icebrg who wrote (8132)	4/14/2003 4:08:19 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Erik, I just saw some figures (from ML) for Enbrel in psoriasis. They claim that about 8% of Enbrel scripts are now off-label by dermatologists. (Up from essentially zero five months ago). That's about an $80m annual run rate if my calculations are correct. Peter

To: Icebrg who wrote (8132)	5/19/2003 3:24:06 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Genentech - Avastin About a month ago, I suggested. >> I bought some Genentech to get some semblance of stability in my biotech portfolio. I felt that as the share price historically is low and with some upcoming defining events the upside should be better than the downside. I am not so sure any more. The four important events I saw for Genentech's 2003 were approvals for Xolair and Raptiva. In addition we should learn more about the late-stage cancer drugs Avastin (anti-VEGF) and Tarceva (small molecule EGF manipulator). But once the stock found its way into the portfolio, things start to look somewhat more shady. (That is often the case with me). Xolair - I have no idea really. We will see in May. But if approved, it seems to be a very expensive treatment with a demanding method for administration. It's not for everyone. Raptiva - I believe the drug will be approved, but I am doubtful if the level of income will be meaningful for a company of DNA's size. And being humanized only, the agent has its weak spots, until proven otherwise. Tarceva - We have seen the problems AZN are facing with Iressa. Is there really any reason to believe that Tarceva will do much better? Both Iressa and Tarceva may very well be approved, but at present they seem destined to serve rather marginal "markets" (where the results very well may be very good). But based on Iressa's results, they don't seem to be destined to become major cancer drugs. Finally Avastin - I have my doubts about this drug too. The agent is supposed to work through anti-angiogenesis - a concept that still has to be proven in the clinic (as far as I know). All in all - there are a lot of question-marks that are hanging over Genentech late-stage portfolio of drug candidates at the moment. But question-marks are still better than no marks at all. I don't think they have another Rituxan-like success hidden away in their current crop of late-stage products. >> Well, so far developments have been fair (2 out of 4 is not bad). Xolair received a recommendation from its panel last week and today - early and unexpected - Genentech released some PR on Avastin: SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 19, 2003-- Genentech, Inc. (NYSE:DNA - News) today announced that a Phase III study of Avastin(TM) (bevacizumab, rhuMAb-VEGF) plus chemotherapy in previously-untreated metastatic colorectal cancer patients met its primary endpoint of improving overall survival. The magnitude of the benefit observed far exceeded what the study was designed to demonstrate. The trial also met the secondary endpoints of progression-free survival, response rate, and duration of response. Genentech plans to submit data from this Phase III metastatic colorectal cancer trial to the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), May 31 - June 3. Avastin is an investigational therapeutic antibody designed to inhibit Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF), a protein that plays a critical role in tumor angiogenesis (the formation of new blood vessels to the tumor) and maintenance of existing tumor blood vessels. By inhibiting VEGF, Avastin is designed to interfere with processes that are critical to tumor growth and metastasis. etc... This is of course extremely pleasing. A new option has been added to the treatments of cancer. The principle of anti-angionesis has been proven for the first time ( at least to my knowledge) and Genentech appears to have defined another platform on which it can base its future growth. I am very pleased about having been wrong. Erik