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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FaultLine who wrote (116)	4/14/2003 12:28:16 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

The problems - there are several overlapping problems - with the huge backlog in recovery, I would summarize as follows: 1) Massive burden on the health care system; 2) Prolonged contact between health care workers and the very ill causes a dramatic increase in the risk that health care workers will become infected; 3) Potential future is that every available hospital bed will be full of very sick SARS patients; 4) Sick health care workers means nobody to care for the patients; 5) Inability to quarantine SARS patients in hospitals that are full to the brim means that they need to be put somewhere other than a hospital; 6) Places other than hospitals don't have good ways to minimize the spread of infection; 7) General outbreak. I didn't factor in the problems involved in quarantining emergency medical techs who drive ambulances, and policemen and firemen who will also act as first responders. My overactive imagination sees a worst case of every hospital full of sick patients and no health care workers, while on the streets no firemen, no policemen, and no emergency medical techs. Admittedly that's a vision worthy of a Stephen King novel.

To: FaultLine who wrote (116)	4/14/2003 3:26:39 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

<-About 4% will expire> FL, not 4%. More like 7%. Count the bodies, the recovered, the cases a week ago. It takes a while from being reported as a case to when one dies. 10% death rate compared with recovered. 4% of those infected to now have died. The end of match result will be somewhere between 4% and 10% unless the weird USA zero death rate shows it's a Chinese disease in some way. I'm guessing 7% death rate of those infected. Mqurice