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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5889)4/14/2003 9:32:39 PM
From: Scoobah  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32591
 
How to deal with Syria



A dozen years ago, George Bush, the 41st president of the United States, and father of the current president, managed to enlist Hafez Assad, the former Syrian president and the father of the current one, into the coalition against Iraq. That was a purposeful alliance, which led to, among other things, the Madrid Peace Conference on the Middle East.

The relations between the sons who rose to power in Washington and Damascus is tense. George W. Bush went to war against Saddam Hussein, while Bashar Assad helped Saddam's regime with military supplies and granting shelter to escaping members of the regime. In response, Syria has been sharply reprimanded and warned by the Americans.

Syria is on Bush's list of "axis of evil" countries - alongside Libya and ranked just below Iraq, Iran and North Korea. In addition to his complaints concerning Syrian cooperation with Saddam Hussein and his associates, Bush mentioned on Sunday, in response to a question, the chemical weapons in Syrian hands.

This is not new. Syria has missile batteries and rockets armed with chemical and possibly biological warheads, as well as the capability of manufacturing such payloads. The Syrians say these weapons are meant as a deterrence to balance the nuclear power they attribute to Israel. As opposed to Iraq in its war against Iran, and even the Egyptians in their war 40 years ago in Yemen, Syria has never used chemical weapons.

The Syrian provocation is also to be seen in its ties to organizations hostile to Israel - Palestinian (Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front - General command) and Lebanese (Hezbollah). The global U.S. campaign against terror is also aimed at these groups and the countries that provide them shelter. If the United States succeeds in forcing Iran and Syria to cease their support for these organizations that are trying to harm Israel inside its borders, in the territories and overseas, it would be another substantial contribution - following the removal of Iraq from the circle of hostile countries - to Israel's security.

The situation that has emerged on Israel's northern front - from the moment the Iraqi threat was neutralized, thus eliminating the eastern front - justifies opening a diplomatic, not a military, campaign. Syria, bound by Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon, is now more isolated than ever before. It cannot count on the Russians, who were unable to help Saddam, nor on Egypt, its partner in the Yom Kippur War but which chose peace with Israel. This opens the way for an Israeli initiative to renew peace talks that were cut off three years ago at the meeting of Hafez Assad and President Clinton in Geneva.

At that time, Israel and Syria were on the verge of an agreement. The gap between Assad and then-premier Ehud Barak was bridgeable. After Assad's death and his son's rise to power, Barak unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon and the Palestinians opened their violent conflict with Israel.

Renewing the Israeli-Syrian talks, based on the framework set by Barak, Clinton and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shara at Shepherdstown, could thaw the tension between Washington and Damascus and bring Israel closer to another peace agreement that would have an impact on the contacts with the Palestinians.

The price Israel would have to pay, a withdrawal from the Golan, should not deter the Sharon government from renewing the negotiations.



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5889)4/14/2003 9:41:10 PM
From: Scoobah  Respond to of 32591
 
Arik the King probably can't believe he has lived to see this day:

US TELLS SYRIA TO CO-OPERATE OR RISK CONFLICT April 14, 2003

The Times Online reports: "President Bush yesterday accused Syria of having chemical weapons. In the clearest sign yet that Washington is turning its sights on Damascus’ links to terrorism, two of his most senior Cabinet members also warned the country against harboring Iraqi officials.
Mr. Bush told Syria that it 'must co-operate' with Washington as it continues its effort to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq.

He also repeated earlier warnings from Donald Rumsfeld, the US Defense Secretary, and Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, that Damascus must not harbor fleeing members of Saddam’s regime.

'We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria,' Mr. Bush said. 'We expect co-operation and I’m hopeful that we will receive co-operation.'

He did not threaten Syria with military action, but told it, along with Iran and North Korea — who, with Iraq, form his 'axis of evil' — that the example of Iraq shows 'we’re serious about stopping weapons of mass destruction'.

General Tommy Franks, commander of coalition troops in Iraq, said that it could take a year to search every site in Iraq where weapons of mass destruction might be hidden. He said that up to 3,000 locations are earmarked for visits which are progressing at the rate of five to 15 a day. He added that Syrian fighters had joined Iraqi soldiers to fight inside Iraq…"



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5889)4/15/2003 9:35:14 AM
From: Scoobah  Respond to of 32591
 
Day 27 of Iraq War

Ultimatum for Assad as US Special Forces Land

Although President George W. Bush and administration spokesmen have carefully skirted any explicit threat of military action against Syria, DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Sunday night, April 12, small teams of American undercover troops were already inside Syria marking out the hideouts of Saddam’s close family, his top lieutenants, military leaders and the directors of his banned weapons programs. US special forces troops were additionally directed to locate the men who drive the operational arms of the Hizballah, Jihad Islami and Hamas terror groups.

Twenty-four hours later, Monday night, three events brought Syria even closer to becoming the object of direct American action, additionally placing France in Washington’s sights - albeit for a different kind of punishment. Syria faces imminent economic sanctions at best – although, since experience shows they never work, military action is very much on the cards. France stands to pay a diplomatic and financial price for certain actions that have come to light.

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources describe the White House as particularly incensed over the following pieces of intelligence:

A. Documents coming to light in Baghdad directly incriminate Syria as a full partner in the financing, development and concealment of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs. A source familiar with the new data reveals that Syria was not only a full partner but active in every stage of these programs to the point that they deserve to be called Iraqi-Syrian, not just Iraqi, undertakings.

Well before the UN weapons inspectors came on the scene last year, the Syrian president Bashar Assad took it upon himself to conceal the banned weapons, one by one, as they came off the production line. Syria’s support for Iraq in the UN Security Council and the attacks leveled by foreign minister Farouk a-Sharah against Washington, for venturing to accuse Iraq of concealing weapons of mass destruction, were staged to misdirect attention from the biggest political, intelligence and military fraud perpetrated since the Cold War ended.

Washington’s indignation over these discoveries has been manifested in a torrent of warnings to, and charges against Damascus in the last three days. Defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld took the opportunity of the warm welcome he gave the visiting Kuwait ruler on Monday, April 14, to produce intelligence that Syria had conducted chemical weapons tests in the last year.

He could have said more. According to DEBKAfile’s Washington sources, the defense secretary was also informed that in the same period Syria test-fired missiles fitted with chemical warheads from Aleppo in the north to Djebel Druze in the south near the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordan border junction. Damascus carried out the test on behalf of the Iraqi-Syrian partnership for developing unconventional weapons.

B. The details of the comprehensive military collaboration treaty Assad secretly concluded with the now deposed Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein that were first exposed in DEBKAfile in September 2000 are only now emerging in full. Under its terms, Syria was bound to furnish an escape hatch for fleeing Iraqi military, political, scientific and intelligence top echelons working on the banned weapons programs, as well as providing concealed locations for production to continue. Damascus was therefore committed to taking over the shared WMD projects from the point they were interrupted by a war emergency in Baghdad.

C. This discovery relates to the aid rendered Syria by France. DEBKAfile’s exclusive intelligence and military sources reveal that, from Monday night, April 14, groups of Iraqi military and scientific leaders have been transferred from Syria to France. This came about as a result of President Chirac consenting to help Assad live up to his commitments to Saddam Hussein and keep their forbidden weapons out of sight and their existence denied.

These discoveries led the Bush administration to slap down before Damascus a three-part ultimatum:

1. First, in view of Syria’s long record as sponsor of terror, the Assad regime is required to dismantle at once the command centers of the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Jihad Islami and Hamas Damascus headquarters and turn their leaders over to the United States. A list of names is supplied.

2. To hand over without delay all the weapons of mass destruction on its territory, whether they are “Iraqi” or “Syrian”.

3. To surrender to the Americans at once every one of the hundreds of Iraqi regime members, including Saddam kinsmen, granted asylum in Syria.

Assad’s failure to deliver would result in the United States acting to force his compliance.

Washington’s ultimatum evoked a frantic Arab reaction. Saudi foreign minister Saudi Al-Faisal went to Damascus to warn the Syrian ruler of grave consequences should he persist in defying the Americans. He advised him to call an urgent Arab foreign ministers meeting for Friday, April 18, and ask the Arab world to back him up in meeting Washington’s demands. The Syrian ruler has not yet informed the Saudi minister of his intentions.

Though not unaware of the danger hanging over his head, Assad is showing the same kind of stubbornness as Saddam Hussein his ally exhibited when he was urged by a procession of diplomatic well-wishers to show flexibility – or go into voluntary exile – so as to avert an American invasion.

A brief anecdote indicates the deceptive nature of the Syrian-Iraqi alliance. Iraq’s UN ambassador Mohammed Al-Douri, the first Saddam regime official to concede his country’s defeat (“The game is over”), aroused some sympathy when he burst into tears in New York and vowed to devote his life to a peaceful future for his people. He announced he would be going to Paris.

Well, DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources have discovered that the weeping ambassador stayed in Paris only long enough to catch the next plane to Damascus, where he joined his not exactly peace-loving brother, who turns out to be the deposed vice president Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri.

Al Qaeda Poised for Festival Strike

Osama bin Laden’s organization is reported preparing to stage a comeback by a fresh terrorist assault in Turkey against American or Israel/Jewish targets over Passover this week or Easter, next. Upon receipt of this intelligence, Ankara placed its counter-terror units on high alert, installing special security measures at its civilian and military airfields and around bases accommodating US forces.

According to DEBKAfile’s sources, Al Qaeda planners, established at a forward base in Iran, are plotting a dual strike against a hotel frequented by Israeli holiday-makers and an incoming Israeli airliner – on the lines of the attack the network mounted last November 28 in Kenya on the Israeli-owned Mombasa Paradise hotel and Arkia airliner. Al Qaeda may also seek out a large local Jewish gathering for the Passover Seder. As in Mombasa, the fundamentalist terrorists are preparing to use shoulder-launched Strela SA-7 anti-air missiles, whether against an incoming Israeli airliner or American aircraft ferrying American military personnel into Turkey.

Its operatives are reportedly lying in wait on both sides of the Turkish-Iraqi border to ambush American convoys and attack isolated US installations in Iraqi Kurdistan. In the last week, they the terrorists were seen slipping across from Iran into Turkey and northern Iraq.



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5889)4/15/2003 1:07:58 PM
From: Scoobah  Respond to of 32591
 
Unmasking the real Sharon

By Yoel Marcus



The interview that Ariel Sharon granted to Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit is like a matza sandwich with gooey chocolate spread. You take a bite and wonder what the point is - to make it easier to swallow the dry matza or help the sweet, sticky chocolate go down?

On the day Sharon gave this interview, starring in the role of peacemaker, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the prime minister "will not accept any dictate in the road map that he believes will endanger the security of Israel, even at the risk of clashing with President Bush."

A few days before the Haaretz interview, Yedioth Ahronoth published two militant quotes emanating from Sharon's inner circle: "Israel will not compromise the safety of its citizens just to compensate Tony Blair" and "The prime minister will not hesitate to challenge the Bush administration if he is asked to freeze the settlements or lay a single finger on them."

So who is the real Sharon? The tough cookie from Yedioth Ahronoth or the sweet chocolate spread from Haaretz, prepared to make painful concessions to bring peace and security?

Peace, security and painful concessions were Sharon's three main promises during his two election campaigns. He talks like a leader, walks like a leader and promises like a leader; but as he begins his third year in office, a leader he's not. Not only has he failed to keep any of these pledges, but the situation is worse than ever - both in terms of defense and in terms of our international standing.

Even now, as Sharon tells Haaretz how willing he is to make compromises for the sake of genuine peace, he chokes every time he should be saying the word "evacuation." Asked why he won't give up Netzarim, for example, he launches into a lengthy reply to the effect that he has never and will never back down on any issue related to Israeli security. I personally heard him say the same thing two years ago.

In response to Shavit's question about why he refuses to dismantle isolated settlements, Sharon gives a long drawn-out reply from which the word "evacuation" is conspicuously absent. Is he willing to halt construction in the settlements or remove illegal outposts as a first stage? There he goes again, with his answers that are more like non-answers: "This is a sensitive issue. Why don't we leave it alone for now?"

There are words Sharon just cannot bring himself to utter when he talks about peace. It reminds me of that skit on the satirical television show, Hartzufim, in which the Sharon puppet can't say the name "Netanyahu."

Sharon keeps repeating the mantra about how, at his age, he has no ambitions aside from bringing peace and security to the people of Israel. Of late, it seems the prime minister is starting to realize that there might be a link between the security situation and the economic slump. It's not a normal thing for people to be happy with their leader, but not with his performance. Now that Israel is being likened to Argentina, it has begun to sink in that Sharon ought to be making some noises in favor of dialogue, before the public discovers the emperor has no clothes.

Sharon doesn't have to read the latest comments of Richard Perle - the spiritual father of the war on Iraq who says America doesn't owe the Arabs anything - to see that he has nothing to fear from a president who is running for a second term on the "National Hero" ticket. So it's easy for him to start a dialogue spin without intending to reach a permanent accord with the Palestinians.

The major change Sharon wants to make to the road map is to organize everything in "stages" and insure that the parties don't go on to the next stage before completing the one before it. Sharon demands that the Palestinians recognize Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state and give up the right of return as a prerequisite to ending the conflict. He wants Arafat neutralized and Abu Mazen to be as strong as Popeye the Sailorman, so he can clobber terror instead of being forced to reach an agreement with Hamas.

For Sharon, the important things are intentions, effort and outcome - not simultaneously, but one after another. So we're looking at a long story with every step of the way taking forever - just what Sharon loves.

Through Haaretz, the prime minister sent a message to the president of the United States: "I'll be a good boy." His partners on the right will be satisfied with a wink.



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5889)4/16/2003 11:51:49 AM
From: Frederick Langford  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 32591
 
Heard on CNBC, the Palestinians said if we didn't hand Abu Abas over to them, they would take it out on the 'roadmap'
Sounds good to me!
Same old Palestinians, they will show us, they will buy 2 tickets but not go in! Maybe they should take their road map up their (_!_)'s

Fred