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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (93600)	4/15/2003 4:28:39 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I'd say in the short term the biggest problem is finding acceptable leadership for the many factions to create some form of confederation. If we cannot do that, then terrorism will arise. I'd call the formation of acceptable leadership more of a medium-term problem. One of the problems of terrorism is that it can arise even in the presence of a confederation representing most factions. A very small number of extremists can do a lot of damage, especially in the early stages, when the credibility of the local police force and intelligence establishment is most doubtful. Companies that will be participating in reconstruction will need security guarantees for their people, and those will be difficult to give. Our troops fight better than anyone on earth, but we can't expect them to sweep Iraqi neighborhoods looking for terrorists.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (93600)	4/16/2003 12:14:23 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Another thought… If we play it right, we may be able to sell the idea of a "neutral" regime. That is a regime that is neither pro-Islamism nor anti-Islamism, neither pro-Israel nor anti-Israel, neither pro-US nor anti-US. In a region where everyone is highly in the "anti" camp, neutrality is a good compromise and can lead to friendliness in the future. The temptation will be too great however to back whoever tells us whatever we want to hear. This is a reasonable idea, but one difficult to square up with the “with us or against us” mentality. We will at some point have to choose between our desire to “back whoever tells us whatever we want to hear” and our commitment to democracy in Iraq.