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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44044)	4/15/2003 4:43:01 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

On oil... Zachary Latif latif.blogspot.com The Middle East will now see a shift of power from the Sunni-Arab Levantine coastal strip to the Shi'ite Persian Gulf. This is the historical balance of power and gives new life to the Middle East, with Iraq's economic growth rate forecasted to be 10%p.a (for the first few years it'll be to recoup the lost growth of the last two decades), and Bashar Assad of Syria going to kickstart the liberalisation of his nation (a necessity if he wants to keep his hereditary post). Israel will be pushed to marginality considering that Iraq will form as the new bulwark of the States and what will be exciting is that we'll see a realignment to the political faultlines and an usurpation of the current power structures. Venuezala is coming back online and compouding by the resumption of Iraqi production we can expect a plunge in oil prices, that is if OPEC doesn't slash quotas. Though I wouldn't go as far as this article and state: The cost of oil dependence has never been so clear. What had long been largely an environmental issue has suddenly become a deadly serious strategic concern. Oil is an indulgence we can no longer afford, not just because it will run out or turn the planet into a sauna, but because it inexorably leads to global conflict. Enough. What we need is a massive, Apollo-scale effort to unlock the potential of hydrogen, a virtually unlimited source of power. The technology is at a tipping point. Terrorism provides political urgency. Consumers are ready for an alternative. From Detroit to Dallas, even the oil establishment is primed for change. We put a man on the moon in a decade; we can achieve energy independence just as fast. Here's how. After all the quest for renewable energy will proceed apace however will be of secondary importance over the coming years considering the stabilisation of the Middle East. The need for an alternative is only pressing when the price of oil is at crazy levels, like a month ago because of the premium on the war, however should it stabilise in the high teens and low 20's then the opportunity cost of investing in alternative energy will be even higher. The markets and customers will consume what is cheapest therefore massive subsidies & small detours from the R&D divisions of the automobile companies will need to be sustained for at least a decade before renewable energy will be an option to oil (widespread adoption is simply unfeasible until alternative energy costs lower than the cost of oil).