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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (339)	4/15/2003 8:09:43 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Treasuries green everywhere, stock surge grinding to a halt, was it soo bad? I find it interesting that the pair again improved. There must be problems in germany. The EUR extended its gains after being in red late yday or earlier.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (339)	4/15/2003 12:54:53 PM
From: Londo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

No positions, but I am noticing that the treasuries are up moderately in a day that the market is up slightly. Since bonds have been a leading indicator, this suggests that the S&P is topping. I don't buy it though, going short at this time would be 'too easy'. Going long at this point would be 'too hard', so I think the direction of the market (i.e. most fear) is up. So we'll see S&P 900 again. I'm sure of it. I'm too much of a wimp to go long through, I'll be timing the short. Euro is still continuing to amaze. When the S&P surges, the bond and Euro should still head down.. that'll be a good a time as any to establish a position. One other 'sleeper' factor is that oil is up to 29 dollars. Shorting it pre-OPEC (April 24th?) or just slightly during OPEC (when they announce supply restrictions that the whole market has anticipated) will probably be profitable to a dollar or so of movement over the next week or two. The QM futures are good for 400 barrels of oil, it's OK leverage.