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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (69785)	4/15/2003 11:29:23 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

Cho, IMO the public opinion polls means nothing in this particular case. I am sure opinion polls of the past would have shown earth to be flat and that swans are always white. More to the point, I think there is a very strong desire on parts of many neocons to see a regime change in Iran, Syria, and Saudi (in that order). But practicality suggests that Syria will be next but not before some stability and success in Iraq. I have written about this topic before and several intelligence analysts later agreed with this position. Assad believes that the conflict is inevitible and that he should push the timetable forward for the better results. Iran is completely opaque. They have a very complex strategy which involves the right mix of hope-fear-uncertainity. In case of Syria, the quote that rings in my head is from Carter era. Carter (or one of his staff) said there can never be a war [with Israel] without Egypt. And Hafiz Assad responded, there can never be peace without Syria. Syria wants the Golan Heights back as well as some guarantees and aid for the Lebenan. That will make them go away (barring other issues). BTW, the other domino, Saudi Arabia, is about as good as it gets. Its people are behind its obscure version of Islam. Subverting that regime will only give rise to much worse crowd. And you can't invade them either. That will be like Osama bombing Vatican. The backlash will be massive and global. ST