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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (235637)	4/15/2003 12:07:54 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

I hate paying so much for time premie, but you've got to be willing to try again if you don't -- those seem like a pretty safe play to me -- just have to realize -- sub-prime will break first and maybe the homies themselves -- but I've been wrong for a long time on both -- I'll wait.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (235637)	4/15/2003 1:16:26 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

war discount coming out of oil and NG??

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (235637)	4/15/2003 1:19:47 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

From Mr. Trotsky: Date: Tue Apr 15 2003 10:00 trotsky (strat) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved fabrication demand has always been the biggest source of physical gold demand...and has never been a source of rising prices. only investment, or monetary demand, moves the gold price. iow, the 'jerk-bait' traders, whatever that's supposed to mean. it is the demand at the margin that detrmines price - fabrication demand is price elastic, investment demand is the opposite - it tends to rise along with rising prices ( just as demand for e.g. Cisco shares rose along with their price during the bull market/bubble ) . as for the dollar, note that its acceptance hinges entirely on confidence ( since it is backed only by hot air ) - and not at all on other countries desire to sell something to the US. that confidence is likewise expressed by the actions of traders - they are the ones moving the dollar too. in the end, it doesn't matter who one sells things to - as long as the recipient has a means of payment that is deemed acceptable. the US have no special status in this regard, in spite of the rumors to the contrary. you seem to think that the severe maladjustments and distortions in the debt laden US economy will never matter just because 'nobody wants them to'. that's exactly the polyanna position espoused by such luminaries as the MIT professor Rudi Dornbush in '98, who said back then 'there will never be a bear market ( in stocks ) or a recession again, because the Fed doesn't want that to happen'. as if what a bunch of bureaucrats wants has anything to do with what's going to happen. Date: Tue Apr 15 2003 11:11 trotsky (strat) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i would certainly agree with your criticism of the WGC - it clearly does a poor job, and is way too slow in implementing plans that appear to have merit ( such as an exchange traded vehicle representing physical gold similar to the SPDRs ) . regarding the speculators in the gold futures market, they tend to drive prices too far in one direction or the other, but ultimately they represent a good gauge for gold supply/demand - excesses usually get corrected quickly. i agree that investing in bullion per se is a bit out of vogue in the Western world at the present, but there are some signs that a comeback may be in the works. admittedly only tentative signs, but they're there nevertheless. an example would be the several capital injections by hedge funds into CEF in order to obtain exposure to bullion. there's also some anecdotal evidence that gold's role as a portfolio diversifier is regaining some of its former respect. numerous gold focused investment funds invest in bullion as well as gold shares. of course it's an arduous and drawn out process, since the bear market is still fresh in everybody's mind. but the attitudes acquired during the bear market are not immutable - it just takes time ( and a persistent uptrend ) to change them. trotsky (strat) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i have revised my opinion on GATA completely....i agree now that they do far more harm than good, since they tend to reinforce the perception that gold is something for whackos. that's mainly due to their attack-dog chairman...there are several researchers associated with the group that have done valuable work, such as Turk and Howe ( even though one doesn't have to necessarily agree with their conclusions, they have provided us with interesting research and insights ) . why they have chosen to be associated with that nut-job Murphy is really beyond me. and yes, Asia is important ( there could btw. be an unexpected source of future demand there, namely the Asian CBs, all of which are very underweighted gold at the moment ) & the WGC should get off its butt. regarding alleged market manipulation, my view remains that it exists in varying degrees, but apparently this involves mostly short term maneuvering ( like e.g. reaching 'max pain' levels on options expiration day ) and what's more, no manipulation of markets has ever been successful in the long term anyway. the market in the end always overrules participants who attempt to fight a primary trend.