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Strategies & Market Trends : The Great Coin Toss Experiment II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (104)	4/15/2003 2:14:06 PM
From: Sojourner Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 188

In a sideways market, which I hear is 87% of the time, I think direction is a crapshoot. Gambling systems that bet on a near 50/50 odds, do best with a money management strategy. (In stocks, brokers fees and slipage is the house advantage.) IMO it doesn't matter if one is right, it is all in the money management. Most automatic systems are based on breakouts. They can work well if they are right 40% of the time, if the winning payout is greater. I have struggled, as have many, to find high probably indicators or strategies. The highest that is most known is the fill-the-gap strategy. On the the short side it is right about 78% of the time. The payout though is not as high as a good breakout system. I am working on system that bets on both sides, and averages in like the gambling systems. And at the same time, hedges against breakouts.