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To: Road Walker who wrote (174112)	4/15/2003 10:22:11 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: Nothing is going to get much better until we get a geopolitical situation that encourages new inventment; risk taking. You're right about that, but maybe it will happen sooner than we expect. The market tends to lead by about 6 months, so, if it starts looking like it's going to start looking better, if you know what I mean, things could get a lot better very soon. The way I see it, the Dow should settle back to about 10,000 once everyone stops worrying. finance.yahoo.com^DJI&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

To: Road Walker who wrote (174112)	4/16/2003 3:42:12 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John and Thread, RE: "yawn" But better than a deep plunge in stock price. I never did get around to lightening my stock position a tad due to SARS (and probably just as well). Still writing covered calls into losses to buy more. The Q1 report sounded a tad better than expected. I wonder how much Q2 will be impacted by SARs? In HK, the restaurants are empty. People are told to avoid crowds (i.e. malls). Some are worried or panicked, but then others that live on the other side of the SARS outbreak aren't. A friend's friend is taking it in stride. Her relatives here are more worried about her than she is. Some of my friends from other countries are finding our Western paranoia interesting - they find it interesting our headlines talk about the deaths of a mere 100 people while their headlines only tend to mention deaths if its a high number of say 50,000 or more. Due to limited resources, the value of life in some countries isn't as valuable as it is in ours. But the slew of healthy, young HK people killed by SARS over the past few days is nasty. Also, a new batch of about a dozen nurses/doctors got SARS over the weekend, probably because HK's hospital ICU units are already at a third full capacity and they're shifting care to medical help that's less skilled with handling infectious diseases. Their medical clothing supplies are also running a bit low. Maybe we should all be invested in medical supplies and masks. But the epicurve isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu. The Guardian had an archive on the Spanish Flu - and from the article, I interpreted the Spanish Flu was significantly more contagious than SARS, but the mortality rate of the Spanish Flu sounded less severe than SARS. The 1918 article implied the Spanish Flu hit London during the spring, wasn't too bad, but then got really bad during December when the winter weather complicated people's recovery from the illness. I suspect we'll see something similar with SARs - a nasty uptick in December. I read it'll take scientists one entire year to find some type of vaccine, a year to test, then another year for experimental deployment. 3 years is a long time. It sounded like the Spanish Flu ran its nasty course over only a one year period since it spread so fast. But it sounds like SARS will be here forever, because it spreads slower and wasn't contained. On another note, I recently gave a job offer to someone from HK. You'd be surprised how one or two people in the Valley think they're safe from SARS because they "don't hang out with Asians" (as if it's an ethnic disease, rather than one that travels by airplanes). I think Q2 is going to be impacted by a change in consumer shopping behavior due to SARs. But I also think there's a quiet recovery happening - machines are getting old, replacements are happening, etc. So, which one wins - Sars vs replacements? In the long-term, it doesn't matter. In HK, broadband has jumped by around 30%. SARs is turning out to be a big broadband killer app. Regards, Amy J