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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (31620)	4/16/2003 11:06:39 AM
From: sciAticA errAticA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

CHAOS-ONOMIC: Strangely Attracted to the Truth Apr 16 chaos-onomics.com I do not separate people, as do the narrow-minded, into Greeks and barbarians. I am not interested in the origin or race of citizens. I only distinguish them on the basis of their virtue. For me each good foreigner is a Greek and each bad Greek is worse than a barbarian. Alexander the Great I wonder, sometimes, while contemplating the eventual effects of the more "adventurous" US foreign policy these days, what other expansionists of history thought of their efforts. Was Alexander the Great aware that he was writing the first sentences of the final chapter in the history of the Ancient Egyptian civilization, was Cyrus the Great of Persia aware that his expansionism would cause the Greeks to push him back, inspiring their own expansionist efforts, or was Napoleon aware that he was raising the spirit of nationalism throughout Europe, helping plant the spiritual seeds that eventually destroyed the Monarchical system on the continent. Did these and other expansionists simply impose their will because they could, or because they believed they were bringing a better way of life to people. Regardless, having embarked on their path, they followed it to the end, and from the perspective of history often acting more as catalyst than cause as the changes they brought taught the lesson that change was possible. As the Afghanistan War morphed into the Iraq War and dovish comments from "good-cop" Powell aside, looks to morph into a Syrian War and beyond, I wonder what changes will inadvertently be inspired by this expansion. While the eventual effects are beyond my ability to discern currently, as I not only don't have a crystal ball but endeavor to remind myself that the future is unknown, we can look at some of the changes already begun. The drive to "globalization" seems to have been stalled as the media more and more present the international institutions as tools of the national governments rather than as drivers in their own right. Barring a radical shift in US policy in the 2004 election cycle, the globalists' cause might have been set back a generation as the spirit of nationalism, a primary evil for globalists, seems to be tough to dislodge from the public psyche. The US, having gotten the Vietnam monkey off its back during Gulf War I, looks to have re-established its credentials as sole military superpower, at least in the arena of straight up nationalist wars. However, the inability to capture Osama bin-Laden, Saddam Hussein and their assorted henchmen and the continued skirmishes in Afghanistan also speak to the success of guerilla efforts against this superior military might. If the next phase of the neo-con expansion effort follows the same script of victory against a vanishing army, preferring to blend into the population than fight, then I would begin to wonder if the US isn't the only nation relying on Sun Tzu's The Art of War. Consider these excerpts from chapter 1; Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. While the US Military is a powerful force, holding the fort in Afghanistan and Iraq, prosecuting a War in Syria and presenting a strong front to N Korea seems a tall order. With diplomacy in Asia somewhat sidelined by fear of SARS, I can think of few periods in the past few decades that presented a better opportunity for China to grab Taiwan, after all, change is in the air. Back to economics, it looks like my expectation of a surprise CPI did not pan out as apparel and IT related price indices continued their declines. However, with crude oil prices hanging stubbornly around the $30 level, the tendency, given the aggressively expansionist monetary policy of the Fed will be for other prices to adjust higher. The price of avoiding a nominal decline in GDP when faced with a debt overhang is inflation. Obvious, but I imagine lost on the current administration, who, after all, are, in the main, holdovers from the Nixon gang that got the 70s off to such a rousing start.