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To: GVTucker who wrote (174127)	4/16/2003 12:36:35 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

GVTucker, I guess that all depends on what your definition of the "mean" is. In the case of the S&P 500, it sounds like the "mean" is a 5-year moving average. Tenchusatsu

To: GVTucker who wrote (174127)	4/17/2003 12:16:59 AM
From: Jacques Newey	Respond to of 186894

"every single bubble in capital market history has resulted in a minimum of 100% retracement back to the mean." Grantham also wrote that most bubbles over correct(i.e. > 100% retracement), with the level of over correction being proportional to the degree of overvaluation during the previous bubble. Given the level of absurd valuations during the last bubble, we've still got a long way to go.....down. Grantham postulates the S$P will drop to 500 at capitulation. We shall see.