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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (112)	4/17/2003 10:20:12 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 4904

if i were Abdullah, i'd quadruple the guards at the Ras Tanura oil terminal. if that get's taken out, we'll have $100 oil. however, as long as the fundamentalists get their regular monthly cheque from the sheikhs, it's not likely to happen. a couple of thoughts... 1. This suggests/confirms that the US involvement in the ME will be for a long time (meaning with troops in place). US interests being at risk, using terrorism threat as justification for their presence. I like your optimism as to the probabilities of happening, yet given that an attack on US soil seems harder to accomplish, terrorists may look at Saudi, (or other "US interest related" facilities in the ME) as a preferred target with better chances of success. If so... 2. Then oil @ $100.00/bbl. How then, would this change the outlook of investments in real estate made based on low interest rates of the last couple of years? meaning... can real estate at some point be considered at par with an investment in gold ? in related news FYI.... tankerworld.com prices/Morganstanley_oilprices_310303 tankerworld.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (112)	4/17/2003 1:53:40 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 4904

i'd quadruple the guards at the Ras Tanura oil terminal Saudi reserves are highly concentrated in a few fields, which could be taken out of commission by hitting just a few points downstream. an article in the latest Atlantic Monthly by a former CIA agent in the ME helpfully points out a number of facilities terrorists can target for maximum effect: * Abqaiq, the world's largest processing facility. a moderate to severe hit here would knock off 5 or 6 million barrels a day, and production would remain 4Mbpd below normal for 7 months. this reduction alone would equal the entire OPEC reduction during the 1973 embargo. * Ras Tanura, especially Platform No. 4 which handles half the daily volume of 4.5Mbpd and could be attacked by a surface boat or readily available Kilo-class submarine * Pump Station No. 1, which pumps 900 Kbpd to Yanbu * the pipe run from Abqaiq to Ju'aymah and Ras Tanura as long as the fundamentalists get their regular monthly cheque from the sheikhs, it's not likely to happen this is an important point. Saudis pay a lot of protection money to the radicals in hopes that they will direct their furor elsewhere. according to the UN Security Council, Saudi Arabia has given Al Qaeda $500 million over the last decade. Fahd's favorite son Abdul Aziz put together a $100 million aid package for the Taliban in 1997. but apparently there are a lot of elements, even among the princes, who want to take Saudi oil offline for a couple years so that they can take down the House of Saud and have a revolution. if they succeed, we could be looking at $150 oil.