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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (122)	4/16/2003 2:50:14 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	1 Recommendation Respond to of 4905

well, they've obviously suffered from the strong Rand...but the Rand looks quite overbought to me, and they have largely discounted its effects by now imo. the one fact that still argues in their favor is that the have the largest gold reserves and the most capable mine management by a mile (with the possible exception of Droopy's management of course...-g-). the most recent quarter will look bad, but perhaps not as bad as feared. lower Rand gold price coupled with lower grades (lower grades tend to be mined when the Rand PoG is high) should make for quite a retrenchment in earnings, not as bad in dollar terms naturally. it made sense for the Rand to retrace its previous collapse, but it doesn't make much sense for it to stay there or get even stronger imo. and any Rand weakness from here on out will likely be greeted with a buying binge on the JSE's gold board.