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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (30306)	4/16/2003 2:46:02 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Gold bull over now? Better read this: investorshub.com

To: LLCF who wrote (30306)	4/16/2003 4:10:40 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Heinz isn't so sure: Message 18848250 Nice to see him back posting. jpg

To: LLCF who wrote (30306)	4/22/2003 10:54:49 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 36161

["So that's your call........ gold bull over now?"] No...that's not my call, nor what I said... I was pointing out the hypocrisy of a couple of the Gold Sectors biggest Pumpsters... ie: continually revising their bottom calls lower & lower and then finally clinging to the 200 dma's as the last Holy Grail of the Gold Bull remaining intact...which were also violated... The "Big & Easy Money" - "High Reward/Low Risk" play in Gold... is however, over...and the undeniable, factual point can be made, that for the last year - it has been over...and has been DEADMONEY - ie: the HUI's original 150+ top that occured in May 2002 - one year ago. Gold stocks are DOWN over the last 12 months. ...that seems to be a fact that somehow has continually escaped the Mega-Bulls. Could the sector go higher ? ...of course; but there is NOTHING on the horizon to drive goldstocks to significant "new highs"... "THAT" is and has been... my major point. We had the "Big & Easy" parabolic move in goldstocks last year...then 3 significant - high reward/low risk re-entry/trading opps that occured in July, August and October last year... since the HUI "DOUBLE TOP ROLLOVER" that occured from Dec thru Jan...we've entered into a low reward/high risk environment...and those scenario's hold little interest for me. Imho, the biggest mistake made by people involved in volatile commodity cyclicals... is thinking they must always "be in"... and continually trying to trade the market (the sector) 24/7 x 365....which is a fools bet. Hopefully most of us learn sooner, or later; that discipline and patience are the 2 most highly profitable trading techniques...and that being "out" and sitting predominantly in "cash", often for weeks, even months... is not just prudent, but often a pre-requisite for success and for seizing future opportunities. Battling highly volatile, narrow trading ranges day to day... is a fools bet...and that's what we've had here of late. "Value" - as far as a re-entry opp; imho lies at HUI 95-105ish and/or on a successfull re-test of POG $307-$311 ...and not before. In mature cycles...AFTER we've already had 2-3 significant re-entry/trading opps... the risk to reward model shifts technically from chasing "bottom" re-entry opps, to waiting for a significant breakout to the upside and new highs, before re-entering. ...that's where we are now imho. Highly volatile, narrow trading ranges that hold much risk and little reward... especially if one has already bagged this range 2-3 times, earlier in the cycle when the rewards were higher and the risk was lower... I wait patiently for the upside catalysts for gold to mature and play out...giving me verification that gold and goldstocks can move to signifcant new highs... or, I'll just wait patiently for deep, REAL value levels to re-enter on the downside....but ONLY if the underlying positive catalysts supporting gold remain intact. ...there is NOTHING on the horizon nearterm that is going to drive Goldstocks to significant new highs... hence; a good time to catch up on all things Spring... ie: Baseball, Hot Dogs, Apple Pie etc... a break away from the trading screen refreshes the mind & there is little risk here of missing much... in fact; the base industrial metals may be the better bet going forward: forbes.com Good Luck