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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (9860)	4/16/2003 2:40:48 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

<The best gauge of Fed activity is the narrow component of MZM..> Maybe true for basic economic measures, but our point of discussion pertains to broad measures of excess "liquidity" that fuels often maladjusted (the old money has to go somewhere theory) speculation into various markets. Something (credit creation) is driving it, as money is suddenly showing up big time in demand deposit growth, etc.

To: austrieconomist who wrote (9860)	4/17/2003 8:06:47 AM
From: d:oug	Respond to of 39344

Money & credit is gibberish to me, but this person seems to have an indepth handle on this stuff. . Message 18843588 SI: StockTalk: Gold, Mining, and Natural Resources : .A to Z Junior Mining Research Site To: 4figureau From: Jim Willie CB Tuesday, Apr 15, 2003 FNM CEO Raines is a true burokrat fuchup they will deny the real estate decline until they are last to recognize it publicly this is a fool of high order bigger fools are their investors just read that Comstock Partners report on credit bubbles over recent history agree with them for the most part the next recession will be led by a Real Estate decline it is now written in stone it represents the final target of Kondratiev Winter no safe harbors in K-Winter, even if wrapped in USFlags the USGovt Inflation Machinists will continue to prop the mortgage market but nothing can stop the RE sector from declines owing to poor job security and gradual eye opening by borrowers money will get a little tighter for lending I have come to the conclusion in the last few weeks that.... GOLD AINT GONNA DO SQUAT UNTIL REAL ESTATE DECLINES then gold will begin a strong ascent, very strong we have $15 trillion invested in real estate we have $7 trillion in mortgage bonds this money will slowly exit RE and MBackeds and find gold (even marginally) with its eyes closed my best guess is RE is widely recognized as declining by the end of this year gold will accelerate by end of this year the strange element to this equation will be that stocks will continue to attempt to get up, thereby firming the floor for TENS yield and associated mortgage rates... soon smalltime price inflation will appear, but not attract too much attention... it will continue with energy and health costs... this will aid the slowmotion flight out of TrezBonds and MortBacked Bonds the strange element will be that exit from TBonds and MBonds will attempt but fail to find a happy home in stocks... BUT THAT EXIT WILL END THE BOND BUBBLE AND BEGIN ITS RELEASE OF CONSIDERABLE FLATULLENCE as Sinclair says "the Fifth Element is the TBond market" when it declines, GOLD will take off and not until then, as we have seen what Prechter misses totally is that we will certainly have inflationary recession interest rates will rise from producer costs and seloff in TBonds as foreigners pile on the reasons for departing our TBonds the easiest reason is refusal to finance our war machine the USGovt will inflate the monetary base in a way that will be written about in history books for 100 years nothing has ever been witnessed like it since recorded history if anyone thinks I tend toward hyperbole, please find another example in human history the Fed is like a stupid desperate boyscout who keeps squirting kerosene lighter fluid on his smoking embers of a fire, until suddenly someday soon, some month soon, the fire will indeed ignite, and singe every remaining hair of the little deviant pyro's head, and cause an EXPLOSION this will take time, and might even occur from spontaneous combustion (of course, GreenSheiss has no surviving hair) the declining real estate sector will ensure a recession falling dollar and foreign TBond selling will ensure price inflation (which I never confuse with monetary inflation) / jim