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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9466)	4/17/2003 3:21:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Bear Market Rally Ends by Jes Black forexnews.com Top 10 reasons you know you’ve reached a bear market rally top: 1) Stock valuations soar back to levels seen at the 1929 stock market top 2) Bullish sentiment rises to highs seen at all the previous tops 3) The volatility index (VIX) falls to lows not seen since the last major sell off began 4) Mutual fund cash levels are near all time lows 5) Insider selling on the rise 6) Declining volume, falling advance/decline line, indicating lack of breadth 7) The market repels from its 200-day exponential moving average 8) Break below the rally’s trend line support, retest and failure 9) Negative divergence between momentum and price 10) The dollar refuses to participate in the stock market’s rally. These reasons alone are enough to ensure that the latest bear market rally was not the last. Sky-high valuations and sentiment need to give way to a real capitulation by investors before this market records a final bottom. But the fundamental reason that stocks are likely to decline this time around is the lack of participation by the dollar. Of course, the dollar is also in its own secular bear market and a looming sell off in stocks bodes poorly for its own bear market rally. But veteran stock traders will also look at the dollar as a proxy of demand for US assets, and they don’t like what they see. The latest bear market rally in the dollar and stocks reveals that currency and equity stock traders had fundamentally different views about the economy. Overlaying both the dollar index with the S&P 500 shows that once the US captured Baghdad, currency traders turned bearish on the buck, while equity analysts remained upbeat. USD Index The best way to get a sense of dollar demand is by looking at the dollar index. Therefore, it’s worth noting that it fell below the trend line support from its March low of 97.57, crossing at 99.50 on Wednesday. This morning the index rebounded off its 98.80, its April low. The 98.80 level is now critical support; because a move below it would likely carry the dollar back to its March lows of 97.57 in the index, and then possibly to new lows around 95/96. -April 17, 2003