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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (141)	4/17/2003 10:25:23 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

(OT) I've never quite understood why we have such a slow simmering hysteria surrounding smallpox. I don't think anyone believes there is a substantial risk of smallpox, but it is prudent to assume a slight risk. Russia and the US had the only declared stocks, but who knows how many undeclared stocks there were/are. But even a very small risk is unacceptable if you don't have vaccine on hand. Some simulations showed massive US casualties (in the millions or tens of millions) if smallpox was spread among an unprotected population. (It is believed that the smallpox vaccinations that many adults received twenty and more years ago are no longer protective.) Fortunately, it appears you can still vaccinate after exposure to smallpox, and so I believe that widespread vaccination now is a mistake. Peter

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (141)	4/17/2003 2:39:17 PM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

Smallpox, before the vaccine was developed was a relatively high mortality disease. Unfortunately, the vaccination program stopped when WHO declared it was eradicated and if it were to break out again, there would be many deaths again. But there are risks always with any vaccination and nowadays, many are all spoiled and softened by too many years of easy living to take that tiny risk. When smallpox was raging worldwide, that risk of complications from the vaccine seemed tiny. I am reminded of stories of the spanish flu and bubonic plague of days past. The spanish flu only killed about 675,000 americans, with 200,000 deaths October 1918 alone. Eventually, everyone became immune and we all moved on. But I assume millions did die all over the world. And yet, it is not the %age of mortality that is the problem with SARS and smallpox but how easily these diseases are transmitted. If it was like ebola, which had a much higher mortality but low transmission, then it is not that big of a problem. However, who here hasn't caught a cold in the last 2 yrs?