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To: mishedlo who wrote (236092)	4/16/2003 7:50:16 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 436258

Today’s stock market action was particularly dismal. Earnings are supposed to be the name of the game now that the war is over. Well, JP Morgan Chase, Microsoft and Intel, among others, produced better than expected numbers. However, investors were waiting to sell into the news, especially those stocks most affected by a deteriorating economy. The DOW was bombed for 145 points, closing at 8257. The DOG, 1395 and up 4, failed to hold 1400 AGAIN. The under-reported economic survey mentioned in the following story really struck me. The Wall Street economist crowd keeps telling investors that the next quarter/half is going to be better and that a reviving economy will give the stock market its badly needed boost. They have been talking like this for more than two years. Manana never comes. Lately, they have been touting that the US economy will pick up steam once the war ended. This Empire State survey does not bode well for the optimists. Bonds Snap Losing Streak After Data Jolt Tuesday April 15, 10:06 am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury prices broke a three-day losing streak to swing higher on Tuesday after a little-watched report on New York manufacturing proved so dismal that dealers sat up and took notice. The Federal Reserve's Empire State survey dismayed many analysts by showing a marked deterioration in business conditions to -20.4 in April from -2.8 in March. Measures of new orders and employment declined while prices paid jumped and prices received remained depressed, highlighting the squeeze on corporate profit margins. This survey has been gaining attention as it is the one of the first indicators on industry to be released every month. It sometimes foreshadows moves in more influential reports, such as the Philadelphia Fed and the Chicago purchasing management surveys. "The Empire survey was a lot weaker than expected and that bodes ill for the Philly Fed," said Drew Matus, senior financial economist at Lehman Brothers. "But we're not sure how much it says about late month surveys like the ISM, which presumably will reflect more relief from the war news," he added, referring to the Institute for Supply Management survey. Manufacturing has been suffering for some time. Figures out Tuesday showed industrial production fell 0.5 percent in March against expectations of a 0.2 percent dip, in large part due to a sharp drop in utilities output. There were notable downward revisions to past data with February now down 0.1 percent instead of up 0.1 percent, leaving overall output much weaker in the first quarter than first thought. Capacity utilization declined to a 15-month low of 74.8 from 75.3 percent, meaning a quarter of U.S. industry is essentially mothballed waiting for demand to catch up…. –END-