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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (30317)	4/16/2003 9:40:26 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Markets & sectors look like they smell deflation in the context of renewed recessionary conditions, in the months ahead. Don't see the US$ having much downside (or much upside for that matter) but that won't support stocks with the primary trend of a secular deflation coming back to stage center, in the financial media, a little later this year. SARs induced crash in airline traffic to and from key Asian nations. US boycott of French goods. German boycott of US goods. And finally, the long awaited double dip in US economy (whose consumer is the key demand support holding up prices of world wide mfg goods awa commodities) all work to create the massive contraction in world trade that occurs during an era of secular deflation. All we've seen since 9/11 is a weak counter trend blip of inflation about once/year, 95% of which has been in the quite vociferous expectations of the less informed (known inhabit the gold bug threads AWA many segments of the financial media<G>) who continue to mistakenly think we're entering a variation (or even a rerun) of the 1970s. That's not to say the gold stocks won't rally, from time to time. Of course they will. Hell, anyone whose been reading my real time posted trades knows I've made some very nice bucks on some of those counter-trend rallies since January, thank you very much. And I'm hoping to continue to jump on some of those ops going forward. But...I've yet to see anything that looks like confirmation of an important Intermediate Term low in PM stocks or the metal. And, until my work indicates that? Cash Is King! Isopatch