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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (31711)	4/17/2003 5:30:28 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Yes. The time scale KJC. Yes, again, it is the different pages of the book but in the same chapter of same book. The whole economic system has a certain inertia. It slows, and at slower speed it start changing the course. Then the people, the economic agents inside it will start taking notice. Ordinary people, akin to someone seating at the center seat in the center row of B747, don't notice the changes in speed, direction or angle of rolling pitch. Only if they are sudden and sharp. The flight attendants (economists) have not given us a better picture of how comparative advantage works at the micro level through the movement of labor, skills and capital. I keep recording the changes since about 15 years ago. In 1984, Japan overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods. In every year from 1979 to 1984, Southeast Asia contributed more than did Western Europe to the overall increase in world trade. In 1976, for example, half of the annual increase in world imports comprised goods shipped to Western Europe. By 1984, that amount had dropped to only 13%. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasts a fall of more than 5% points to 25% of European share of total world traffic by 2000. In the case of freight, the European share is expected to fall to 29% from 34% while Asia/Pacific share rises to 40% from 27% surpassing both Europe and North America. I think we have been in a slow down phase, which has been non-linear. At the same time I saw a few steering going on during the 90's, -on top of the freer movement of capital of the previous 8 years- called privatization, de-regulation and liberalization. Or course some of it were made just for show but keeping the old structural frame work in place. That's why Menen's Argentina failed. Another development is the US no longer being able to make its allies march on lockstep. And it is not about the last disagreement about Iraq. 13 years ago Bush, the Sr: "...admitted that the U.S. can no longer impose unity on the fractious allies. “We’re not urging everyone to march in lockstep”. And “We are dealing in an entirely different era ” But perhaps Margareth Thatcher best characterized the precedings when she said: “We are in fact together, but taking a different view.” Businessweek International, Jul. 23, 1990. I can't understand why today's administration didn't read the writing on the wall and saw it coming that eventually a few key allies would desert the US as French and Germans did in the case of Iraq.