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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (9898)	4/17/2003 12:08:08 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<Maybe, just maybe, this credit creation will instead sink the economies of the world into depression as the debt burden exceeds the capacity of individuals and corporations to pay.> Credit can implode and disappear, money just finds a new home [in the gold market?]. It will be very interesting going forward to see how proactive the Fed is in keeping this credit [money] from imploding. The speech by 'whatshisname' is being pointed at as a watershed event by the gold bulls [me], but the timing of such intervention could prove very important as well to weak hands in the gold market. DAK

To: austrieconomist who wrote (9898)	4/17/2003 1:52:52 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Your analysis is thoughtful and incisive. However, whether we will have inflation followed by depression or go straight to depression, is largely in the hands of the govt, including the fed. As has been stated by others on this thread, before the govt. allows depression, they will hand out money on the street corners. I can't envision the govt. allowing a depression to occur without pumping the money supply out of sight. The theory being that it will bail out debtors, etc. The question is what will it take to do this and what will the result be. I think either the stagflation of the sixties or hyper inflation. of course if hyper inflation is the answer, it will likely be followed by depression. If stagflation is the result, we may haves years of tough times. At least that is what it looks like from here. Little joe

To: austrieconomist who wrote (9898)	4/17/2003 8:13:30 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 39344

Thoughtful commentary, thanks for weighing in on this "gold" thread. I'm influenced by the gentlemen you mention, but now tend to lean toward inflation outcomes (at least for commodities). Money growth may be down from the extreme rates you cite, but are still robust. My commodity view is really more geared toward supply side issues. Many commodities were capital starved in the last cycle, or were subjected to boom-busts that have taken producers out and shot them. In my mind supply constraints in key commodities like oil, and also gold and base metals (and now possibly even grains) will be the driving factor, more so than money growth. This point of view was well expressed here by John Hathaway: tocqueville.com Even on the demand side, there are new strong emerging consumers of commodities such as China to keep commodities strong. Marc Faber, for one expouses this view. Secondly, I view gold as a superior asset now to USD or other fiat currencies, even in a deflationary climate. I feel the best commentator on credit and money is Doug Noland. Any comments on his points would be welcomed here, as many of us (fairly balanced non-dogmatic thread for the topic) here should not be locked in stone about anything. prudentbear.com <My present take is that this rate of growth is insufficient to prop the present economic fabric and if Fed policy is intended to do so, to extend the bubble> In general I agree with this, but don't think monetary deflation is universal across all asset class, countries, etc. You could even have an inflation of sorts in assets like energy, precious metals even within an overall credit deflation (debt liquidation cycle).