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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (178)	4/18/2003 10:28:43 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4913

JW: Couldn't agree with you more as far as the big picture is concerned, and like you, I find it difficult to believe that the US economy can "muddle through" a burgeoning consumer retrenchment. The prospect of "cheaper oil" (a major expected bi-product of the recent war) appears to me to be fully factored into current market prices, but perhaps it goes a bit higher yet. But the all-important consumer has definitively started to pull in his horns and I simply don't see how that can reverse without lay-offs first reversing (which is not in the cards, given current corporate conditions). "As goes the US consumer, so goes the US economy",........ and he is heading for his storm cellar. As I have mentioned many times to my own gang, if you want to know where the stock market is heading, just keep track of US consumer lending (as without this, he can't spend) and the lay-offs. Both continue to make me queasy. Best, Earlie