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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (196)	4/20/2003 10:25:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4912

do you have any guess from what price point that might be? i don't know about price point. i think the more critical question is when. as production starts tailing off over the next few years in non-OPEC countries, OPEC will gain market share. they could find themselves in a position to dictate much higher prices. deliberate price gouging aside, and even assuming no major geopolitical disruptions, once the world passes its Hubbert peak, which may be in the process of happening right now (give or take several years), production will begin a slow descent even as demand continues a steady rise. reconciling greater demand with less supply will of course require higher prices. if we lived in a rational world, we would be investing a lot of money in alternative energy technologies and reducing long-term demand, so that we would not face an oil shock and could meet decreasing supply with decreasing demand (meeting our energy needs otherwise). but complacency, coupled with propaganda about the world's bountiful oil supplies and fantasies about high-tech drilling saving the day have kept us from confronting the hard choices early. so over the next 10-15 years, we will be facing a pound of cure instead of an ounce of prevention. or maybe Bush's idea is many Kilotons of cure delivered by PGMs.