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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (200)	4/17/2003 6:18:00 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 3432

Looking strictly at the VIX and VXN. The VXN appears to be a better predictor of tops than the VIX. A real nice chart for determining tops is the BPNDX:VXN chart: stockcharts.com[w,a]wallyyay[d19970417,20030417][pf][vc60][J11775108,Y]&listNum=1 Note here how we've hit a trendline and nearly double topped with the November high. However, that November high came about 6-trading days prior to the actual price high (36-points higher on the NDX). stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[pf][vc60][J11775108,Y]&pref=G Since the NDX is lagging this advance, it's possible we could have a situation where both indices reach double tops with their respective Dec. tops while the SPX hits 910. Everything except price is screaming top here. If you look at the daily VIX, it looks like it's finished a wave 3 off the 41.16 top, leaving only a 4th wave and 5th wave to prepare the VIX for a reversal back up. The 5th wave could just be a re-test and a higher low, but the indices will probably keep moving up for a couple days even if it is a reversal: stockcharts.com[l,a]dacaynay[db][pd20,2!f][iut!lp14,3,3!lh5,5!lb14!li10,10!la12,26,9!ll14][J8819018,Y]&pref=G I'm just trying to keep an open mind here. Although the market appears to be topping here, the top could still be 80 COMP and 20 SPX points away.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (200)	4/17/2003 6:22:35 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3432

BTW, moneyflow is not a good indicator during distributive or secondary tops: stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[de][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lc20][J9867868,Y]&pref=G Note the tops in Jan, May, and August 2002 also were during negative moneyflow times. The only way to play during these situations is to wait until the full stochs (14,3) get above 80 and turn down. Only then can you be certain you've gotten close to the top according to this chart. Every top presents new challenges to us. The fact that so many reliable bear markers are no longer working is an indication that the bear is getting long in the tooth (it's given up 80% at the extremes) and the balance of the bear is going to trick even the best of us.