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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (226)	4/17/2003 11:53:16 PM
From: da_cheif™	Respond to of 3432

In the summer of 87 the market went up 30% but the weekly ad line didnt budge...the dow played catchup in oct 87...i expect the same in reverse under these current circumtances

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (226)	4/18/2003 1:06:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 3432

From Brian What can be said about the market today? Or this week for that matter? What started out as a correction this morning turned into a move that looks to have traced out 5 waves up in the S&P, Naz and the Dow. What had looked like a corrective move early this morning actually may have been a series of three 1's and 2's, and the unwinding of that carried through the rest of the day. Except at two points during the day, the NYSE tick stayed above 250 all day, touching or exceeding the 1000 mark six times. The VIX collapsed over 15% this week (as did the VXN), and the put/call ratio came in at 0.52 today; the last time there was a reading that low was right near the August 2002 top. The dollar broke down yesterday and this morning in the start of another wave down, but then corrected up hard the rest of the day in an A-B-C to its 38.2% retrace at 99.30 - which probably explains a portion of today's action. In a nutshell, this week leaves the EW picture conflicted. On the one hand the S&P declined from Thursday's high in what appeared to be 5 waves and has thus far corrected up to the 78.6% retrace of that decline. Yet yesterday's decline stopped right at the 61.8% retrace of the 5 wave advance that is labeled wave C (grey) which ended on Thursday (which would be wave 1 in the Red count on the 60-min chart) and then rose today in what appears to be 5 waves. This would suggest that today was the first move in a larger advance. No key levels have been breached yet, but the nature of today?s rise is a red flag. In the face of an apparent 5 wave decline on Thursday and an apparent 5 wave rise today, it will have to be left up to the market to break key levels in one direction or the other to show the correct count; these levels are 905 and 878. The Dow touched it's 50% retrace at 8349 within 2 points while the Naz made a new high beyond yesterday's high in 5 waves, showing how diverged this market is. I do not personally follow the Naz, but I have seen some counts today that show that Naz possibly completing a wave C today, showing 5 waves from the April 9th low. So with the Naz showing a complete A-B-C and the Dow and S&P still within their limits for a continued decline, the table might be set. But focusing purely on the S&P wave count, it also looks like the table may be set for a breakout to the upside under the Red count on the 60-min chart. On the one hand this all appears to be a perfect setup for a major turn, but on the other hand it would not take much to break out to the upside beyond 905: what a great way to enter the weekend - with maximum ambiguity. stockcharts.com All the Best, Brian ============================================================ Velo is there a point at which you decide that UP is happening? Both you and Zeev seem pretty convinced that Down is it but it just does not seem to be happening M