Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (30378)	4/17/2003 11:32:39 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Iso, interesting take on the dollar - especially with regard to your feeling the indices may be heading for a drop. The recent rally, and drop in gold, seemed to be linked to a dollar bounce. If the dollar is putting in a bottom I would expect stocks to continue to fare well, and mining stocks to continue to drop. Do you think we may enter a phase with dollar strength occurring at the same time as a drop in the indices? Sharp

To: isopatch who wrote (30378)	4/18/2003 9:35:32 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

I won't quarrell with your view that the dollar could go higher as I think, short-term, it could go either way. However, I do question your interpretation of the charts you supplied. Let me preface this by saying that these percent of change in money supply charts have always mystified me. Using the top chart as an example, I understand that to mean that the rate of increase in money is slowing, but is not yet negative, which in turn means money is still being added to the economy. The chart does not show any decrease in money supply. So, for example, the chart you supplied relating to MZM shows that in 2001 there were two occasions when the increase in money supply over what it was 3 months prior approached 6%. More recently it is under 1% more than it was 3 months ago. So if, for example, the MZM were 100 and three months ago it was increasing at the rate of 5% per annum, I guess that means that the increase that month was 1/12 of 5 or 4/10 of one percent increase that month, which mean money supply increased to 100.4 in that month. If 3 months later the chart shows money supply increasing at 1% over its rate 3 months ago, I would assume that money supply in that month is growing at the rate of 6%. and the increase in the money supply for that month would bring the money supply to 101, roughly. Even if the figure were a negative 3%, that would only mean that the money supply is increasing at the rate of 3% not that the actual growth of money is negative. Is this your understanding. Maybe you or someone on the thread who is more knowledgeable than me could explain this? Little joe

To: isopatch who wrote (30378)	4/19/2003 11:26:13 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi ISO I see your dollar chart from Futures Source but on Q-charts I see totally different picture. Using the same MACD (12,26,9) it shows on both the daily and weekly that the MACD is very oversold and we have a crossover to the downside - sell signal. Im not sure why the big difference but there is a big diff. Carl Swenlin (Decision point) also has dollar giving a PMO crossover sell signal. I think the dollar just bounced a bit on Thursday after the European markets were closed. My guess is its going much lower - around 93 . I see no reason at all for the dollar to get stronger. good luck M

To: isopatch who wrote (30378)	4/19/2003 10:19:43 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Isopatch, 98.75 did again prove important support, S/T. 98.75 has been a point on the cash index that has produced bounces in Jan, Feb, and April...another point or so below that, 97.75, has been the low for this correction. Don't know that I reach the same conclusion that the index has or is making a turn, but will note the almost universal forecast for its further decline, and the key spot that tenant takes in the bullish argument for GOLD - a lot of company in that boat. futuresource.com Don Coxe discusses the dollar and the economic implications of its further decline with more upbeat conclusions at the URL below. jonesheward.com