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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (16880)4/18/2003 1:51:58 AM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78516
 
More about HPQ as a small part of a value portfolio.

I'll guess that if the typical value investor has 10-25 stocks, then an opinion on HPQ will be difficult. To buy HPQ, that would wind up being between 4 and 10% of one's portfolio. (if one other stock is dropped) So to buy now, a person would have to be extremely comfortable that HWP is at a most reasonable low (That's an opportunity that was months ago maybe.), or be very assured that he/she knows quite a bit about HWP's products and future. I claim such knowledge is extremely difficult to obtain. After all, HPQ has over 140,000 people in various divisions (before Ms. Fiorina gets through with her axe.) To see what these people in total are doing for future products or doing to counter current competition, is extremely difficult.

I look at HPQ not even as a potential 1% of a portfolio. True, if HQP were to rise 25-50%, I would not see much profit in the portfolio. On days like today though, my portfolios seem to rise sometimes regardless of the stocks held. On these rare days, when so many value stocks are up, liddle-biddy $ moves in a lot of stocks add up to a decent gain.

So sometimes like today I see it important to just be in the ballpark about a stock's value and almost more importantly to be in the stock itself to get gains when the market improves.

-g- Too bad though I can't be so positive about HPQ itself in this view. If it's a value stock, you were better off not owning it today: it would've been one of the few that was down.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (16880)4/18/2003 7:52:54 AM
From: TimbaBear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78516
 
Paul

I just did a quickie cash flow analysis based on the data contained at Yahoo Financial. Based on this quickie look with admittedly limited data, I would be interested in HPQ only if it dropped below $6.00/share. Their revenue and income numbers look large, but the shareholder base is immense (3.05 Billion shares).

TimbaBear