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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Raymond Duray who wrote (31791)4/18/2003 2:03:57 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello RD, <<... provide an example or your theory of how Sars could provide a long term boost?

... Black Plague ... GDP went through the floor>>

$#@4567_)(* I was hoping everyone would give me a free pass on that one, but noooo, you had to ask for the near impossible:0)

Let's see:

(a) chicken farms would have to be separated from pig farms, bullish for land prices, landed gentry, and creates pricing pressure on pigs and chickens and eggs in an otherwise deflationary environ

(b) animal husbandry would have to be pulled into modern age, bullish for pharma and cleaning products

(c) folks have to fix sewers, and developers would have to straighten out design and construction standards, bullish for housing

(d) tourism, school and health care facilities will have to upgrade, bullish for all manner of things

(e) insurance companies will have an easier time aggregating capital, bullish for all previously impossible to fund infrastructure projects

(f) [un-PC, but true, to an extent] old and weak will be fewer in position to claim on social security and pension, bullish for the young and healthy

(g) GDP will not go through the floor this time because of all the spending made possible by non-commodity based cheap fiat money

Caveat: the disease itself must remain under more rather than less control, population decrease stay within decimal of percentage range.

Chugs, Jay



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (31791)4/18/2003 6:59:11 AM
From: maceng2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
In the case of Black Plague in Europe we find that labor was a winner

From your link.

By 1500 total production and trade in Europe had both recovered the ground they lost in the decades after the Black Death and probably exceeded their previous peaks. Population itself was also rising again, though it did not return to its pre-plague level until the middle of the 16th century.

So, in a mere 150 years, the worse effects of the plague had gone, and the reduced population was reaping the benefits. More efficient economy and higher GDP to boot. How things can improve with a little patience -g-.

In the case of a catastrophic SARS like outbreak "it's maybe different this time"

Only half joking. Now the fashion is things are done in "internet time". Wars, plagues, stock bubbles. Providing we do not lose our technology knowledge, and retain a population of several billion, recovery time spans could be much different. Yes, speculation could run wild in recovery mode.

In the case of AIDS, it would need an additional emergence of a religious sect (or other organization) that specifically changes the populations way of life to defeat the disease. Considering the alternative way of life, I would say that is a likely occurrence. That will take several generations to take effect unfortunately.

I loved this bit -g-

In 1363, an observer lamented the changing times in tones that became all too familiar in post-World War II Europe: "Serving girls and unskilled women with no experience in service and stable boys want at least 12 florins per year, and the most arrogant among them 18 or 24 florins per year, and so also nurses and minor artisans working with their hands want three times or nearly the usual pay, and laborers on the land all want oxen and all seed, and want to work the best lands, and to abandon all others."

We can hear the same contemporary ring of European condescension in Africa in a late medieval comment on builders enjoying full employment: "They waste much part of the day in late coming to work, early departing therefrom, long sitting at their breakfast and longtime of sleeping afternoon."


as with the ruling class as is the labor classes... None of 'em any good. All lazy and greedy. -ggg-