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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (8302)	4/18/2003 11:48:20 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 207028

Hi Chip, Dick and I have frequented the Cohu thread for years.Here is one of the most straight forward opinions I've ever read about the future of the Semiconductor Industry. It is written by James Donahue.He has been the divisional manager of Delta Design ,a wholly owned division of Cohu.Although small they have accomplished market share domination of a small niche called testhandlers.These are the machines that hold and transport "ALL integrated circuits" after being manufactured. Since IC 's are small - they must be electrically tested for perforemance before they can be used in assembly of larger boards. Mr Donahue was involved in testhandlers back when few had heard of Intel.Today Delta is the exclusive testhandler of Intel,as it has been for years. He says it very straightforwardly.IMHO he says it with great authority and we will all benefit to accept it as very good advice: This quote is taken from the "Cohu 2002 Annual Report".I hope it doesn't offend Mr Donahue that I quote it with out permission. "LOOKING AHEAD: Some say that the semiconductor industry will never again grow as it has in the past.They point to the absence of a new "killer application" like the PC,VCR,Camcorder,CD Player,cell phone and so on.I disagree.Semiconductors have become so pervasive that the industry is no longer dependent on a few high-volume marque products.Today,ICs are the invisible brains and hearts of an expanding array of everyday products-- from cars to washing machines to digital cameras,to name a few.I believe that the next wave of growth will be powered by the fact that killer applications are no longer required. While the current business environment is mainly negative,it seems to me that the "irrational exuberance" of the late 1990's has given way to irrational gloom.The reluctance of business to invest and consumers to spend is understandable with so much uncertainty in the air -- terrorism,the failure of many internet businesses,corporate scandals,Iraq,North Korea,layoffs.But it is hard to imagine that these issues won't be resolved or fade in importance and as this occurs,macreconomic conditions will improve.As the economy grows,high demand for semiconductors will drive a need for more semiconductor production equipment. Opinions and forecast vary,but the truth is no one knows when business will improve.I believe that we have at least several more quarters of difficult conditions.As the economy turns up,demand for semiconductors will drive the need for additional production capacity.With the significant progress we've made during this downturn.I'm confident that we have never been in a better position to meeet the requirements of our customers and to increase market share." The guy is amazingly straightforward and has been correct for at least the last 18 years I've seen him work. It will be different this time - much harder to see but even more pervasively powerful.JMHO Bob To the degree that Mr Market precedes the anticipated recovery.we need to be agressively long for the inevitable. JMHO Bob Full disclosure: I own a ton of Cohu and love it.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (8302)	4/18/2003 2:58:05 PM
From: Berk	Respond to of 207028

Hi Chip. I definitely will read the article, just haven't done so yet. Ellison may be correct, he certainly has the credentials in the computer industry that make him worthy of attention. At the same time for the next year if not the next decade I will stick with semiconductor technology. Moore's Law is expected to last ten years or more and the results will continue to amaze us just as they did in the last ten. On biotech: A bright and viable future has been predicted for a long time now but it is always just over the horizon. It is certainly coming but the failure rate among companies is extraordinarily high and consequently hard to invest in. Watch the area but be very, very careful with investing in it. Now I'll name drop on you: years ago I was a stock broker and one of my customers was George Rathmann, one of the co-founders of Amgen <VVBG>