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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9505)	4/18/2003 1:56:02 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95487

Last year (April 26) vs this year: AMAT 23 vs 14 TER 31 vs 12 TXN 30 vs 20 ALTR 20 vs 15 MOT 15 vs 7 INTC 28 vs 18 XLNX 36 vs 26 Message 17421358 If you are making a bear case for another 1/3 or 1/2 drop in the semis then I think the view is too bearish. While the recovery which started last year was pushed out, it's still on it's way (albiet at a slower pace and a reduced scale). As to your worry that the market has already priced into the semis the slower recovery, it's difficult for us to discuss this matter with facts. It's an opinion, which will be proved right or wrong over time. I would opine that most, if not all of the bubble has deflated. Whether or not you agree with the current valuation being given to a specific stock or index is worthy of discussion. Pointing to Oct 98, and the valuations assigned at that time, is an interesting reference point but I wouldn't make a big deal out it. Many stocks exploded from that point and returned 1000% or more during the bull run that ensued. Were the valuations excessively bearish in 1998? Obviously. Did they soar beyond reality in the move north? Again, obviously but only extremely obvious when viewed in hindsight. During Oct 98, there where many of us pounding the table that it was the time to buy and, similarly, during March 2000, there were plenty of people pounding the table on excessive stock prices. I have to admit that I was caught up in the bull and wasn't as objective as I should have been at that point in time. EDIT ( removed Where) One place we want to be very careful, as stock pickers, is when a company is starting to see reduced revenues in a declining market segment. Here's where the valuation metrics can be extremely helpful in both: choosing between 2 quality companies AND in keeping one away from the wrong side of the trade (short or long).