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To: yard_man who wrote (71677)	4/18/2003 4:02:40 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

tippett, some nice comments Trying to listen to everyone is certainly a good idea. Even though I have had firmly cemented ideas, I have had my mind changed by persuasive chart-supported arguments that argue the opposite of my position. "I suppose if being wrong for an extended period of time were a basis not to listen to someone -- many would not listen to me. Hopefully, as I get older I stay in mistakes and / or retain demonstrably bad biases for shorter periods of time. At least that's the hope." Those are some sound thoughts, and they make me want to bring up something I've been meaning to mention for a long time, something I've found lacking both on this board and many others for quite some time. The problem is that we have too many bears and too many bulls - and not enough of the people we should have - trend followers. By "trend followers" I mean people who go short when the market is going down and people who go long when the market is going up, as opposed to people who are of the mind, for example, "I'm not going long because the primary trend is down and any gains on the long side right now will be short lived." To that I say: "Well, so what . . . .then just go long for that short-lived time." One doesn't have to be married to a position, instead just go with the flow. Although I have my opinions on the economy and fundamentals at any given time, I try not to let them be too much of an influence on trying to be a market-neutral trader, and I think Shack falls into that neutral group moreso than many all of the others I see posting regularly on SI. To limit oneself to only one perspective, whether bullish or bearish, is to miss half the action of going long during bear market rallies or going short during bull market declines, in whatever timeframe one chooses to trade in.

To: yard_man who wrote (71677)	4/18/2003 4:40:47 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 209892

Good points and I agree with all you said. Not shutting out opposing views is something I and we likely all could use a good lesson in. But the key phrase in your post is I like to look at the arguments from the other side As long as there is some valid and objective critical analysis then bring it on and be sure to share it with us. What I don't care for is bull or bear rhetoric. We get our fair share of both on this thread and more often than not, we get the latter (we are after all bearish in the largest time frames). In this case of the junk bond rally, I just don't see how it could be used to support an economic recovery and stock market rally given how minor it looks on the long-term charts. Sure credit spreads have narrowed but take a look at the junk bond sell-off into the October lows, its been relentless for years, we have barely retraced anything yet. Critically listen to everyone but keep all the agendas in mind.