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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (17548)	4/21/2003 3:09:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

sure, MZM money supply has turned down, despite Fed efforts this is ominous, very ominous, deadly ominous despite the Fed's reckless panick-stricken money printing despite 0% car loans despite 1.2% TBill yields pulling down lending rates despite 5.5% mortgage loans the US monetary base is finally in decline so one can safely conclude that debt is dying (default) or being retired (e.g. paid off MCards) faster than new money is being printed and lent out on combined basis we dont yet have seizups in the banking system at least not yet this is a confirmation of a nasty recession for certain upcoming ALL FED INTERVENTIONS SINCE 2001 WILL MAKE THE RECESSION WORSE because debt levels have gone from excessive to outofcontrol the bubble only moved from stocks to real estate and consumption this means the signals in the last month on production, retail, housing, and inventories are now flashing LOUD RED I find it amazing, but expected didnt know when this would show up it means the Fed is losing the battle in keeping the US Economy liquidity levels at sufficient levels they are losing the war since 2001, it has taken $4.5 new printed dollars to produce $1 in new GDP activity I suspect that figure will rise the swimmer is pedaling even faster underwater now but the treading above water is a losing game the swimmer's head is in danger of going below water level I dont have much deeper to say on the matter the Fed is losing crash in stocks and real estate is now a DEFINITE event since the reaction in 2001-2002 was so irresponsible, I suspect the MZM decline will go down substantially the correction will be much worse than it would have been in 2001 without intervention lending of money cannot be forced lenders can decide not to lend borrowers can decide not to borrow despite Fed efforts to purchase Trez debt in open market, they are losing the game they will probably very soon kick into gear their emergency plan which is to purchase TENyr TNotes in open market with a liquidity threat, longterm rates will soon rise !!! that would be the biggest of the bigtime bigass surprises to come I have expected longterm rates to rise for some time when TBonds are sold on wide basis, longterm rates rise this is how an INFLATIONARY RECESSION PLAYS OUT anyone not frightened is a fool everyone should be frightened by this / jim