The 30th Annual Freedom House survey of democracy in the world: >>Liberty's Advances in a Troubled World
Adrian Karatnycky
[Freedom in the World]
This is the thirtieth anniversary of Freedom in the World, Freedom House's annual comparative survey of political rights and civil liberties. The survey initiated its comprehensive analysis of global trends in political rights and civil liberties in 1972, just before the start of the "third wave" of democratization, which is dated by many scholars to the collapse of the Portuguese dictatorship in 1974.
The evidence of the ebb and flow of democracy during this 30-year period indicates dramatic changes in the global political landscape. One of the most important trends has been the expansion of sovereign states, the count of which has grown from 150 in 1972 to 192 in 2002. As a result of the decomposition of such countries as the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, along with the independence from colonial rule of numerous others, the world's roster of countries has expanded at a rate of just over one per year.
There has, meanwhile, been dramatic progress in the expansion of freedom and democratic governance. In 1972, there were 43 Free countries, with 38 Partly Free and 69 Not Free. Today, there are 89 rated Free, 56 Partly Free and 47 Not Free. The share of Free states has increased from 29 to 46 percent, while Not Free states have declined from 46 to 25 percent. This means that over the last 30 years, the number of Free countries has more than doubled, the number that are Partly Free has grown by 18, while the number that are Not Free has declined by 22 —all of which cumulatively represents a momentous change in the political landscape of the world. [End Page 100]
These trends among our broad political-status categories are elaborated in our more nuanced numerical ratings. Freedom House provides quantitative expression to the state of political rights and civil liberties from country to country on a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 represents compliance with the highest standards and 7 represents their complete negation. According to this scale, the average rating has improved for political rights from 4.5 in 1972 to 3.4 in 2002, and for civil liberties from 4.2 in 1972 to 3.4 in 2002.
Measured relative to population, however, the gains have been more modest. In 1972, 1.3 billion people (35 percent of the world's population) lived in Free countries with democratic governments and broad compliance with human rights. Today the number living in Free countries has grown to 2.7 billion, almost 44 percent of the global population. At the same time, the number of people living in Not Free countries has gone from 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion. This represents a decline in the proportion of people living under Not Free systems from 47.3 percent in 1972 to 35 percent today. It is important to note that of the almost 2.2 billion people living in Not Free countries, almost 60 percent or 1.3 billion live in the People's Republic of China, whose rating over the past 30 years has edged up from a 1972 civil-liberties rating of 7 (the lowest possible) to 6, as a result of expansions in personal freedoms and free private discussion, along with the emergence of some significant space for private-sector economic activity.
The scale of political progress is especially dramatic in the Asia-Pacific region, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, where the impact of the third wave of democratization has been most acute. At the same time, modest but significant progress toward political freedom has been registered in Africa. Meanwhile, however— despite some ferment and several important instances of democratic opening—countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and the former Soviet Union have been troublingly resistant to democratization, and human rights in these places have stagnated.
In 1972, the Americas and the Caribbean together had 13 Free countries, 9 Partly Free, and 4 Not Free. The changes in this region over the last 30 years have been dramatic: Today, there are 23 countries rated as Free, 10 Partly Free, and 2 (Haiti and Cuba) Not Free.
Western Europe had 18 Free states in 1972, while 4 countries were Partly Free, and 3 were Not Free (Portugal, Spain, and Greece). Today, 24 are Free, while only Turkey (which we include in the roster of European states) is Partly Free; none are Not Free.
In the Asia-Pacific region, only 8 states (a quarter of the region's total) were rated Free in 1972, while 13 were Partly Free, and 11 Not Free. Today, there are 18 Free countries (an increase of 21 percent from the region's total 30 years ago), while the number of Partly Free and Not Free states is 10 and 11 (a decrease of 15 and 6 percent), respectively [End Page 101] [Begin Page 103] (see Table 1 on p. 104). These political changes have been accompanied by impressive rates of economic progress over the last decade in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand—each of which has seen the expansion of political rights and civil liberties. This trend has quite thoroughly discredited the once-current idea of "Asian values" as determining a regional path of authoritarian political and economic development.
In Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, all nine then-communist states were Not Free in 1972. With the collapse of the USSR and Yugoslavia, the bifurcation of Czechoslovakia, and the reunification of Germany, however, there are today 12 Free countries in that region (44 percent of the total), 9 Partly Free, and 6 Not Free. It is essential to note that the dramatic progress in political rights and civil liberties in this region has been registered primarily in the states of Central and Eastern Europe, 12 of which are Free countries and 3 Partly Free. By contrast, in the non-Baltic states that emerged from the breakup of the Soviet Union, there are no Free countries, while 6 are Partly Free, and another 6 Not Free. Equally important, the postcommunist countries that have advanced most significantly in terms of democratization have also seen economic reform and impressive economic growth rates. The profound progress made by these states has been confirmed by their rapid integration into the security and economic structures of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic community.
Sub-Saharan Africa had only 2 Free countries in 1972, while 9 were Partly Free, and 28 Not Free. Today, 11 are Free, 22 Partly Free, and 15 Not Free. Africa has witnessed a marked decline in the number of Not Free countries, although proportionately fewer have made enough progress to merit Free status. The region has seen enormous dynamism over the survey's three decades, with significant steps forward having been made in a number of countries, only to be, in some cases, subsequently reversed.
In the Middle East and North Africa, there has been virtually no significant progress toward democracy in the same period. In 1972, the survey rated only 2 countries—Israel and Lebanon—as Free, while 3 states were Partly Free, and 14 Not Free. Today, Israel remains the region's sole democracy and Free state. There are meanwhile 4 Partly Free and 13 Not Free countries, virtually the same distribution as there was 30 years ago.
Religion and Political Change
In past years, our survey has examined the correlations between religion and democratic reform. What we found was that, as a pattern, waves of democratic expansion appear to have moved within cultures and civilizations linked by religious adherence. Social scientists looking at the [End Page 103] political map of the world in the early 1970s were struck by a high correlation between democracy and freedom, on the one hand, and majority- Protestant cultures on the other. The third wave of democratization that took place from the mid-1970s to the late 1980s, however, showed enormous democratic momentum in the majority-Catholic world. Accordingly, as I have argued in these pages before, there is no demonstrable relationship between adherence to any one major religion and adherence to democratic values.
That being said, survey analysis does indicate a negative correlation between majority-Muslim countries and democracy. Here the 30-year record of the survey indicates that the states with majority-Muslim populations have, as a rule, not moved toward higher levels of freedom; indeed, they have seen a diametrically opposite trend. In 1972, there were 2 Free countries with a majority-Muslim populations, 11 were Partly Free, and 23 Not Free. Today, there are 2 Free countries (Mali and Senegal), 18 are Partly Free (an increase of seven), and 27 Not Free (up from 23 in 1972). This contrasts dramatically with trends in the non-Islamic world, where the number of Free countries has expanded from 41 to 87 and the number of Partly Free countries from 27 to 38, while the number that are Not Free has declined from 46 to 20.
And yet, none of these numbers should suggest any kind of inexorable link between Islam and tyranny. In fact, with the world's largest Muslim populations found in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, and Nigeria—and with Muslim minorities participating in the democratic life of Western Europe and North America—most of the world's 1.2 billion Muslims live under democratically elected governments. At the same time, there is evidence in this year's survey of increased freedom in majority-Muslim Senegal and of democratic ferment in several of the Gulf kingdoms —notably, Bahrain, where there has been movement toward constitutional monarchy and some devolution of power to a democratically accountable government. Qatar, too, has seen its emir proclaim his intention to move toward constitutional monarchy, and a new draft constitution is being prepared (although its provisions are not yet public and the process has not been conducted transparently). [End Page 104]
The lack of democratic progress in much of the Muslim world can be attributed to many factors, none of which relate directly to religious belief as such. Crucial among these factors is the persistence of regimes that have come into power through military coups. Another key factor has been the persistence of monarchies that have refused to devolve power to democratically accountable governments, and have in some cases resorted to repression and censorship in their bid to stem democratic civic activism. Yet another factor is the phenomenon of personal authoritarianism, in which individual leaders have maintained personal monopolies on economic and political power, and which is the dominant political system in North Africa and the Middle East. Another factor still is that much of the Islamic world suffers from the influence of two extreme ideologies. One, Ba'athism, is secular in orientation; the second, revolutionary or jihadist Islamism, claims religious justification for acts of violence and repression. Both ideologies were shaped by founders who developed their political ideas and models of activism in the 1930s, when totalitarian movements dominated Europe, and both base their activism on the creation of vanguard parties or movements that seek to foment revolutionary change.
Over the last several decades, Ba'athism and revolutionary Islamism have given birth to, and served to legitimate, several tyrannical regimes and violent political movements that have contributed greatly to the region's persistent instability. The threat posed by these movements has been manipulated by military-dominated dictatorships and authoritarian monarchies, as well, as a justification against political reforms or for the repression of peaceful, democratic political forces. Ba'athist and revolutionary Islamist movements themselves have meanwhile targeted moderate, democratic voices with violence and repression.
The net effect of these factors has been the suppression of any democratic alternative throughout large swaths of the Arabic and Islamic worlds.
The map of the world in 1987 showed just 66 electoral democracies among 167 states (40 percent). By the end of 2002, the survey found 121 electoral democracies among 192 states (63 percent). 1 In short, the number of new, democratically elected governments has increased by 55 over the space of 15 years, an average of nearly four per year. Yet the survey finds that only 89 of these electoral democracies have fostered broad respect for human rights or fostered the stable rule of law. There are numerous reasons for the failure of the 32 other electoral democracies to provide systematic protection for basic civil liberties: Some (Ukraine, for example) are riddled with widespread corruption. Others (Nigeria and Macedonia) are marred by unresolved religious and ethnic tensions. Others still (Colombia and Sri Lanka) suffer civil wars, terrorism, and insurgencies. Some (Indonesia) are just emerging from protracted periods of tyranny and have not yet established the array of [End Page 105] [Begin Page 108] structures to support the effective rule of law that would allow for the wide-ranging implementation of human rights standards. In others (Russia), there are powerful oligarchic interests and stark discrepancies in income that have impeded the rule of law and equal political participation. As democratic development stagnates in such diverse electoral democracies as Georgia, Guatemala, Moldova, Mozambique, Paraguay, Russia, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine, policy makers face the challenge of generating reformist momentum under daunting circumstances.
While it is true that some tyrannies are today using the global war on terrorism demagogically as a justification for internal crackdowns on political opponents, whether violent or peaceful, this year's survey does not suggest a serious erosion of human rights as a result of counterterrorism measures in the wake of September 11.
The findings show that as 2002 drew to a close, there were four new entrants into the ranks of Free countries, bringing their number to 89. This represents approximately 2.7 billion people and 43.6 percent of the global population. Both the absolute number of Free states and their proportion among states generally are now the highest they have been in the history of the survey. There are 56 Partly Free countries, a decrease of three. These states display limited respect for political rights and civil liberties, and otherwise suffer from environments of corruption, the weak rule of law, ethnic and religious strife, and, often, single-party dominance, despite the facade of limited pluralism. Approximately 21 percent of the global population (1.3 billion people) lives in Partly Free societies. Meanwhile, 35.3 percent (2.2 billion) live in 47 Not Free countries, where basic political rights are absent and basic civil liberties are widely and systematically denied, a decline of one from the previous year.
At the same time, the number of electoral democracies held steady relative to the previous year at 121 of the world's 192 governments (63 percent). While some electoral democracies have poor human rights records, they afford considerable space for political opposition movements, provide opposition parties and viewpoints access to the media, and meet the minimum standards of fair elections with ballot secrecy.
Rating Freedom in a Violent World
Each year the survey team deals with parts of the world characterized by mass terrorism, insurgency, and civil war. These destabilizing threats pose substantial challenges for a ratings system that attempts to provide a unified score for the performance of entire countries. When insurgencies are longstanding, based on internationally recognized territorial divisions, or have evidence of stable de facto autonomous governance, we treat such regions as distinct territories and rate them separately from the country as a whole. Such is the case with both Palestine [End Page 108] (Israeli-occupied) and the Palestinian Authority, with both India- and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and with Chechnya.
Thus Israel's categorization as an electoral democracy and its Free rating reflect the treatment it accords citizens within its internationally recognized borders, not the far more troubling picture for human rights in the Palestinian- populated areas, which are assessed separately.
In the case of Colombia, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, where there is no international recognition of those areas controlled by insurgents or where insurgents do not control stable contiguous territories, the ratings process attempts to provide an overall assessment of political rights and civil liberties that incorporates the zones controlled both by the state and by violent insurgent movements.
Another problem faced by the survey team is how to deal with the efforts to interdict terrorism in open democracies like the United States, Britain, France, and Germany. The effects of counterterrorist initiatives and the de facto restrictions on freedom that result from the operation of terrorist groups are factored into the ratings process. The survey team is attuned to the dangers of civil-liberties restrictions as a result of counterterrorism measures as well, and understands that these bear systematic monitoring. Nevertheless, survey data reflects that, despite missteps and overreach by some democratic governments in 2002, states with strong traditions of freedom and the rule of law have generally not seen a significant decline in their overall levels of political rights and civil liberties.
Country Trends
The past year registered an improvement in the category-statuses of six countries. Senegal and Brazil advanced from Partly Free to Free, in large measure as a result of turnovers of power through the victory of an opposition party in free and fair elections. Lesotho also entered the ranks of Free countries after free and fair parliamentary elections. And Yugoslavia became Free as a consequence of the invigoration of its civic life, greater freedom for its media, and gains in the rule of law. Bahrain made political progress, moving up from Not Free to Partly Free because of the partial devolution of power to a new and democratically accountable legislature. And Kenya's status improved from Not Free to Partly Free, due to increased political and civic pluralism and a national election campaign.
Only one country, Côte d'Ivoire, saw its category-status decline, shifting from Partly Free to Not Free with widening violence and the takeover of approximately half the country by rebel military forces.
In the disputed territory of Indian-administered Kashmir, a relatively fair election with a high degree of voter participation—amid voter intimidation by a violent revolutionary Islamist insurgency and rampant [End Page 109] terrorism, no less—led to an improvement in political rights and a consequent status-change from Not Free to Partly Free. By contrast, substantial restrictions on political rights in Pakistan-administered Kashmir meant that it has been rated (in its first appearance in the survey) as Not Free.
In addition to the world's four newly Free countries, and the two that progressed from Not Free to Partly Free, 23 experienced significant gains.
Movement Toward Greater Freedom
Afghanistan registered modest progress as a consequence of the Taliban's fall and the expansion of limited representational rights through the Loya Jirga, which in turn selected the new government. The outgoing regime's repression apparatus was dismantled; schools were reopened; the culture liberalized; and some rights for women and girls were restored. The country's capital, Kabul, however, registered more dramatic improvement than outlying provinces and rural areas. Afghanistan's overall rating remained Not Free as a consequence of severe lawlessness, insecurity, and the overwhelming influence of warlords. (See Larry Goodson's article on pp. 82-99.)
Albania's civil liberties improved due to continuing normalization after the civil unrest and violence of 1997.
Angola, which remains Not Free, saw civil liberties register modest gains in the aftermath of the death of UNITA guerrilla movement leader Jonas Savimbi, which resulted in a ceasefire that has ended hostilities and provided for the return of many civilians to their former homes.
Belgium's civil liberties rating improved as the country's legal system recovered from a debilitating scandal involving child pornography.
In Bhutan, gains were registered due to greater openness and interaction with the outside world, including increased access to the Internet.
Bosnia-Herzegovina's political rights strengthened after indigenous Bosnian institutions successfully organized general elections for the first time since the country's brutal civil war.
Bulgaria's civil liberties improved, particularly on account of increased tolerance toward ethnic minorities and nontraditional religious groups.
Chile's civil-liberties rating improved on account of President Ricardo Lagos's adroit handling of the country's thorny civil-military relationship.
Comoros' political-rights rating improved after a largely successful free and fair presidential election on the archipelago's three islands.
East Timor improved due to direct elections that led it to join the ranks of electoral democracies. Still, its weak parliamentary opposition, and undeveloped media and civil society, prevented the country from improving its status to Free. [End Page 110]
Greece's civil-liberties rating improved after the relaxation of laws relating to the now-defunct November 17 urban guerrilla group.
Guinea-Bissau's civil liberties registered gains due to modest improvements in the rule of law.
Macedonia's political-rights and civil-liberties ratings improved amid increased stability and the gradual implementation of the 2001 Ohrid Agreement that led to an end of hostilities between the Macedonian government and ethnic Albanian insurgents.
Mexico's rating improved, largely because the deepening of reforms in the justice system reinforced the rule of law.
Mongolia's civil-liberties rating went up as a result of the strengthening of the rule of law, including an improvement of conditions in the country's prisons.
Slovenia's civil liberties improved due to legislation satisfying European Union membership requirements, including an employment bill banning any form of discrimination and legislation giving increased rights to foreigners with permanent-resident status.
The Solomon Islands' political-rights and civil-liberties ratings benefited from improvement in the country's security situation.
Turkey progressed with the loosening of restrictions on Kurdish culture and legislation to improve its human-rights framework, both products of the country's efforts to integrate into European structures. At the same time, political rights improved with the military's restraint following the sweeping victory of a moderate Islamist party in a free and fair election.
Tajikistan's civil-liberties rating improved as a result of a strengthening of the rule of law and a renewal of civic life in the aftermath of a civil war that ended in 1997.
Uganda's civil liberties advanced as a result of an increasingly active civil society.
Despite significant political tensions, including an attempted coup, Venezuela's civil-liberties rating improved on account of the dynamism and resilience of civic organizations and independent media in the face of pressures from the government of Hugo Chávez.
The ratings of 12 countries—Brunei, Burundi, France, Germany, Italy, Nauru, Spain, Tanzania, the United Kingdom, Vanuatu, Yemen, and Zambia—improved due to minor adjustments in the survey methodology (see the box p. 102).
Setbacks for Freedom
While Côte d'Ivoire fell into the ranks of Not Free countries, 12 other countries registered setbacks in freedom without changing categories:
Bolivia saw a decline in its political rights with significant evidence [End Page 111] of increased political corruption and campaign funding linked to drug interests.
The rating for Congo (Brazzaville) declined with the erosion of the rights of opposition parties.
Equatorial Guinea regressed, as earlier developments offering hope for a political opening proved cosmetic and the government moved to speed up elections, reducing the ability of opposition groups to mount a campaign or establish effective election-monitoring mechanisms.
Guatemala's political-rights rating declined due to the continuing decay of political institutions, increased violence, rampant corruption, and the reappearance of death squads.
Jordan's political-rights rating declined as a result of the monarchy's postponement of elections and the adoption by decree of numerous temporary laws.
Madagascar's political-rights rating declined from 2 to 3 due to the government's rejection of presidential-election results and the resultant controversy.
Malawi's civil-liberties ratings were set back as a result of increased political violence, including the arrest of opposition leaders.
Nepal suffered a setback in political rights as the king dissolved parliament and postponed elections, while a violent insurgency led by Marxist-Leninist guerrillas continues to rage.
Peru's political-rights rating declined from 1 to 2 because of broken government pledges of openness and transparency.
Taiwan's political-rights rating declined due to regressions in government transparency.
Bangladesh and Moldova saw a decline in their ratings (though no status-change) as a result of minor alterations in our survey methodology.
Worst of the Worst
There are 47 states which are rated as Not Free and in which a broad range of freedoms are systematically denied. Of these, 27 have majority-Muslim populations. Among the Not Free countries, 9 states have been given the Survey's lowest rating of 7 for political rights and 7 for civil liberties. The nine worst-rated countries represent a narrow range: Two (Cuba and North Korea) are one-party Marxist-Leninist regimes. Six are majority Islamic countries (Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and Turkmenistan). The remaining worst-rated state is Burma, a tightly controlled military dictatorship.
There are two worst-rated territories: Tibet (under Chinese jurisdiction) and Chechnya, where an indigenous Islamic population is engaged in a brutal guerrilla war for independence from Russia.
The largely positive trends indicated in this year's survey are reinforced by the growing technological and economic dominance of open [End Page 112] societies. With the glaring exception of the People's Republic of China, the basic statistical evidence suggests that Free societies have, as a rule, expanded their economic output more rapidly than have closed societies.
What this means is that today open societies command a vast advantage in terms of military, technological, economic, and cultural resources. There are also important signs that the world's democracies are looking for new mechanisms through which to improve the governance and accountability of international institutions, and to advance democratic change through aid and development programs. All of this augurs well that the trends of the last 30 years will continue and that human freedom will make significant gains in the new millennium. <<
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