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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (260)	4/19/2003 11:59:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4913

Plunger is the brightest guy on my board. Plays the Macro trend. I did not know him at the time but on Greenspans first rate cut (or slightly before) he put most of what he had on futures bets that interest rates would keep coming down. Thought it was a 100% guaranteed sure fire play and he was right. Thought it was easier that trying to time the market short. With futures I am sure he made a killing just sitting in these plays. Now he has a chunk on gold betting the overall trend is up there. In currency plays somewhere near the top betting against the US$. I sure wish I followed his moves. All you had to do was get in and stay in any of those plays and make a killing. At any rate I can not answer that question to him but I will pose it. In the meantime, just where do you see this "wealth creation" coming from at a time of overcapacity, mass exportation of jobs, and all the structural bubbles that are still in place. This economy is going to be enormously weak for years IMO with few and far between chances for anyone to create enough wealth to pay off that debt. The ONLY booming moneymaking businesses right now are trade jobs associated with a strong housing market. That does not do the average IT worker out of a job any good at all. What happens WHEN NOT IF housing hits a slowdown. If the level of debt and credit expansion is unsustainable and we are losing jobs what other than massive bankruptcies are going to cure the problem? A bankruptcy where the average person keeps his house would be one such wealth transfer mechanism (provided income is sufficient enough to keep paying property taxes).

To: GraceZ who wrote (260)	4/19/2003 6:03:05 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4913

>>Ask yourself why is it that this guy thinks that wealth needs to be transferred rather then created. << A better starting point is to answer the question: What is wealth creation?? What does it consist of? I konw it doesn't consist of individuals simply amassing more banknotes or a larger set of numbers on an individual's statements, i.e. rising asset values in the currency du jour. How is debt self-correcting?? You assume rational behavior of a lender subject to the disciplines of the market??