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To: Paul V. who wrote (2341)	4/20/2003 6:46:22 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 2505

Paul, no real breakout in bookings or billings yet. All my charts are here home.attbi.com Tito's last public post Message 18202181 Gottfried

To: Paul V. who wrote (2341)	4/20/2003 9:25:31 PM
From: Didi	Respond to of 2505

Perhaps these will help, Paul. Good luck. ================= "Capital and Materials Spending", 2/25/03: icknowledge.com ............ businessweek.com S&P's Tom Smith, CFA: "No War Boost for Tech Stocks", 3/28/03: >>> Q: Applied Materials (AMAT ) -- long- and short-term view? A: Applied Materials, as covered by my colleague Richard Tortoriello, is presently a 3-STARS (hold).... On Mar. 18, Applied announced plans to cut 14% of its staff, or about 2,000 jobs, and to consolidate facilities. This reflects the ongoing slowdown in the semiconductor industry and further reflects the likelihood that while semiconductor companies can save money by cutting back on their capital expenditures, this puts a heavy burden on semiconductor equipment suppliers, such as Applied Materials. <<< ............. From S&P Stock Report: >>>Applied Materials, Inc. NASDAQ Symbol AMAT Overview 04-APR-03 We expect capital expenditures by chipmakers to rise 5% to 10% in calendar 2003, with a 20% or higher capacity-driven upturn in 2004. With some of the expected 2003 growth coming from Japan, where competitor Tokyo Electron dominates, we expect AMAT's FY 03 (Oct.) sales to decline 5%, with calendar 2003 sales up 1%. We then expect the company to outpace the industry in 2004. In addition to maintaining its leading positions in PVD and CVD (thin film deposition) tools, it is gaining design-in wins in etch, CMP, and flat panel display CVD tools. Of particular note is strength in copper interconnect deposition, where AMAT is integrating its tools to form modules with guaranteed results. In addition, it is moving aggressively into China. We project EPS at $0.15 for FY 03, with a gain to $0.56 in FY 04. We see Standard & Poor's Core Earnings, including option expense, of a loss of $0.06 a share in FY 03. Valuation 04-APR-03 With a 35% sequential drop in orders in the FY 03 first quarter, following a 12% decline in FY 02 fourth quarter, we believe the worst of the order declines is past. Initial signs in the first calendar quarter of 2003 show an unexpected increase in demand for wireless chips at foundries; if sustained, this could lead to increases in planned capital budgets at foundries in 2003. The shares recently traded at 4.4X sales, near a historical average of 4.0X. However, the company has significantly increased operating leverage through cost cuts and efficiency improvements, and should achieve wider margins in the coming up-cycle than in previous ones. On a price-to-book value basis, the shares recently traded near historical lows, at 2.8X book value. In addition, the stock recently traded at 12X our cycle-peak EPS estimate of $1.10, an attractive level versus our five-year EPS growth projection of 16%.<<<