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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (194)	4/21/2003 2:02:32 PM
From: epsteinbd	Respond to of 1070

So, in the last four weeks, the fatality increase was: 1/ 100% 2/ 50% 3/ 20% 4/ 15% We humans are getting good, unless it lasts a couple of years, if they don't learn how to swim, or fly, or change dress. btw: tests are being conducted in Israel on a possible new case. The inside info is that its the headmaster of the medical analysis department who's doing the tests, or so just said my mole. Sorry, but that's the only scoop I got.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (194)	4/21/2003 11:02:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths. x = 10 deaths. 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxe [actual 217 to 21 April, e = estimate 230] who.int % recovered doesn't make sense. In China, 60% have recovered, whereas in Hong Kong, only 31% have recovered. That probably means that China has reported cases which weren't actually Sars. Perhaps common influenza which resolved as normal. China's %mortality compared with those infected = 6% Hong Kong's %mortality compared with those infected = 7% The numbers don't match for some reason. 60% vs 30% is a huge difference and not explained by China having suffered the infection for a longer period of time. Maybe China has younger people with fewer health problems. Canada's 9% mortality of those infected is huge!! They were 80% elderly and unwell people, as per previous posts, so that would explain that excessive mortality rate. It seems that old people are going to be killed in hordes around the world if the infectious diseases experts are right that the chance to kill the bug off has been lost. China seems to be the main problem. Other countries aren't getting runaway infection. Singapore also has a high %mortality, 9%. Mqurice