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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: reaper who wrote (71711)	4/21/2003 12:45:49 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

reaper - for some reason I keep looking to two periods, for ultimate retracements - early 90's and 95ish. Fundamentally all this imho has a high probability of ending much worse than most think. Chinese water torture. a. Execs have not stopped with the rape and pillage. Mergers also continue, albeit at a slower pace, with the fore and present reason often given being economy of scale. I don't believe this concept has any historical merit, for many industries. For some yes, but even then it has limits. A bigger reason for mergers is the option perks written into the deals. No real investment taking place with many of these transactions. b. If many companies are like the one I work for they are currently wasting ungodly sums of money looking for pie in the sky cockamimi ways to save money. They spend a dollar to save a nickel. These 'studies' are usually conducted by groups of folks who are still alive and kicking because of the peter principal. Buddies of the execs. Mostly former high level folks who lost their positions, and given a new agenda, all in interest of keeping them on the payroll. In short wasted capital, and lots of it. c. Congress continues to support all this shite, in various ways with bail outs, farm (price support) type bills, hidden laws, etc. Normally the inefficient would and should die a rapid death. Now many stay alive, with debts being forgiven such that they then can continue on and undercut the better operators. d. Foreign competition should eventually kill the above approach, and the approach will not change until there is greater impetus. Much greater. Things might not be so perfect in other countries either, but then not all other countries pay 100 grand a year to a lot of joe smoe's, and a lot more to many others, and get little or nothing in return. In short the dollar has to take a whooping. Some say this is good. Weak currency I think is a sign of just that, weakness, and if it gets weak enough the circumstance is accompanied by major social upheaval. Look at Argentina. Did the weak peso (?) bail them out? Assuming it does eventually get 'bad' out there, I suspect violence in some form will occur. It doesn't seem reasonable to believe that US workers are going to continue to get shafted, relative to execs, without eventually fighting back. Too many have had a taste of the good life, and there is a shite load of guns and ammo in America. More than a few nuts as well. This period we are currently going through may be the calm before the storm.