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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (395943)	4/21/2003 6:53:33 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Respond to of 769670

Re: "Things are most likely to go wrong when Bush can least afford it, during next year's campaign. Don't believe Kurdish promises to rejoin a federalized Iraq--they've had de facto independence for 12 years and they're not coming back. Turkey is already threatening to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, and they're leaning on their own Kurds. Hoping to neutralize its unruly neighbor, Iran is arming the Shiite majority. Civil war is more than likely, possibly leading to the disintegration of Turkey and an American excuse for an attack on Iran." "It's impossible to predict the effects of prolonged American occupation of an Arab country; increased terrorism, regional instability and even greater Muslim hostility to the U.S. and its allies seem likely. But a failure to establish a long-term U.S. military presence throughout the country could prove even more damaging than a quick pull-out. If Iraq follows Afghanistan (news - web sites) into neglect, political disintegration and anarchy, we'll be able to count our resentful new enemies by the tens of millions." >>> I agree that the occupation is the great risk, not the war (although '05 would be my prediction for serious trouble in the region... not '04.)