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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stock Farmer who wrote (63685)4/22/2003 12:38:06 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 77399
 
Now, about stock options. I don't "claim" that the company only earned shareholders 7 Billions. The actual number (according to Cisco) is 7.346 Billions as of January 25, 2003. I know this for a fact because Cisco publishes it. If you want to "dispute" this, that is your choice. I have the 10-Q right in front of me, what data are you using to base your claim in opposition?

What data am I using to base my claim in opposition? Well I guess it depends on what claim.

First, whether or not a company can wind up with more cash at its disposal than its documented "earnings" over some period. I say that not only can a company wind up with more cash than earnings, but the figure can be *supstantially* different depending on revenue recognition policies and reserves and all kinds of things.

Consider the small company with 100K in earnings, and 10mm in cash. This was ariba, pre-ipo. You can read all about it in the red herring if you choose. Ariba wasn't public. (I am deliberately choosing a pre-IPO company). I'm not sure if you would consider Ariba to have only earned 100K for its investors in that particular year. Of course that is technically correct but not really relevant. Cisco is the same animal especially in the early days.

I am not trying to dispute your assertion that Cisco only earned 7.3 billion over its lifetime. I only said it sounded a little low, and because I know how companies try to minimize earnings relative to cash flow, I don't think I really care all that much.

Next issue, I thought you asserted rather strongly in a prior post to me (remember the "use that software brain of yours... blah blah") that the difference between Cisco's liquid assets today and prior earnings (you say 7 billion) came from options exercising. Now you say you meant something different.

And as far as where the rest of Cisco's assets came from, I did not claim they all came from stock options. I claimed that they came from assets purchased by shareholders, and that stock options are a major contributor to the phantom-cash machine.

The issue is whether or not 16K employees of a company can realistically generate 14 billion of wealth through the exercise of stock options over a 10 year period. I say no, it isn't really possible. In fact, it is so far off the mark of a realistic ballpark amt I really couldn't let it go. You now say stock options are a "major" contributor to the phantom cash machine (which has magically generated a bunch of cash). OK so how much of that 14 billion do you think came from employee options exercising then John? Please be specific, because I don't think there is a chance in hell that Cisco got over $400K in cash from each employee at the company in order to create this phantom cash stockpile. I actually think the amt of cash per employee that Cisco has captured as a result of stock options is somewhere around 50K MAX (and probably not even that, since the employee count is larger now than it was before so you have to spread the executives over a larger pool of workerbees).

One day when you get the time you should do the math. It's not hard, just tedious. It probably will come as a shock to your faith, but not only is (a) very much larger than (b), but (x) is very much larger than (a) and even (a) + (b)!

No, its a waste of time imo. And it mostly only serves to substantiate your claims that Cisco is not a wealth creating company, and I don't want to bother with that.

Imo you made a fairly outrageous claim a few posts ago regarding the cash cisco has on the books and where it came from. I know companies in Silicon Valley don't get between 500K-800K per employee as cash paid in for options exercise. Just doesn't happen, not even close. That was the original cause for this discussion.

My feeling is that all this relentless number crunching now is a waste of time, I know the revenue targets for Cisco for the next upturn. My feeling is Cisco can hit those targets with about the same GMs or higher. The issue for me is not what Cisco is doing now, only what is possible in the future, that is all. This same thing happened to Dell and IBM in the past fwiw.