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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (413)	4/22/2003 12:41:01 AM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 3432

delete (duplicate)

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (413)	4/22/2003 12:41:01 AM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 3432

delete (duplicate)

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (413)	4/22/2003 12:41:01 AM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 3432

Theoretically, you cannot completely remove the bias because of the statistical nature of the occurance of rises and declines. It's a fixed variable in the equation based on the history of the market and only the market can alter that component in the equation. However, by moving down in time frame, rather than up, to unsmooth the data and remove the higher time frame bias, you at least get to see what is underneath for the lower time frames and you might be able to get something out of it. The caveat remains though, that there has been a variable time disconnect with peaks and bottoms between A/D and price so trying to put a definitive lag period on either is impossible. I should also add that da chief claims that using the weekly is more accurate and that the weekly has been rising so we're still in some grand bull. Again, it's a simple matter of picking out specific data that fits your bias. If you used the weekly instead of the daily for the Nasdaq, you would have been ultrabearish and still would be for a long time now and have missed out on the bulk of the Nasdaq run. The weekly A/D for the Nasdaq topped out over a decade ago and really began to plummet in 1997. In fact, it is still falling. cairns.net.au The biggest percentage gains and bullishness came in this index. If the weekly was worth 2 cents it would have risen over the last 2 years of the run when the index gained nearly 4000 points or about 500%. Contrast this with the rising weekly A/D in the weekly for the S&P which keeps making new highs. geocities.com When the indicator is claimed to be bullish for one index, yet wildy missed the mark by a huge margin on another, where's the credibility for it's validity? There isn't any. Then look at the weekly indicator here for the NYSE... marketcharts.homestead.com as well as in the link just prior for the S&P geocities.com. It topped in early 1998. If you followed this, you missed a 30% rise in the NYSE and a 50% rise in the S&P. Not only that, but if you bought when the weekly indicator bottomed, you pretty much bought right at the very top in the markets and are no doubt screwed at this point with the NYSE down 30% and the S&P down more than 40%. The indicator is garbage and doesn't prove anything.