Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (355)	4/22/2003 7:55:25 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 666

A last word on the 10y pair trade. There was significant outperformance of the German 10y over the US (+105 vs +48), which is not only based on the duration of the CTD basket, but having gained some "riskless" 50points on it (and quite some more on the open bund position), I exit this trade now. But it seems to confirm my opinion about cycles. There is another pair trade possible which requires more risk: Short the US (GE) vs EUR (EU3) money with a december (or march 04) maturity. This should earn pretty steady over the time, given the potential narrowing of fed fund rates. A less risky variation is to do a long spread on the US vs. a short spread in the EU, thus betting on steepening vs. flattening curves. This requires input of many contracts to have any effect on the portfolio, however.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (355)	4/22/2003 10:30:10 AM
From: Londo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Do you use IB to trade GE? I can't seem to access the eurodollar futures. Also, filled in on the S&P 500 long at 886.00 (low of day 885.00) - it's too bad that I made a directional trade on the 30-Year as well (short at 112 26/32).. high of day = 112 25/32. Yuck. I think the markets are trying to play with my mind. (ZB down 10 ticks below HOD now) Anyhow, I think that since this OPEC meeting is on the 24th that if there is a small surge in oil prices (May oil futures are at about 28.45) I'd go short on oil into the meeting (let's say around 29.25/barrel). It's pretty obvious they're going to announce supply cuts, and this is a 'buy the rumour sell the news' sort of arrangement.