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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (197)	4/22/2003 9:19:12 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

The figure of 20 to 40 million deaths from the Spanish Flu of 1918ff is the most common estimate. World population at the time was about 1.75B. That gives a mortality range of 1.14% to 2.28%. ij

To: Biomaven who wrote (197)	4/22/2003 10:55:22 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 4232

the quality of health care and advanced medicine perhaps not play too much role here. And early treatment, experience, and alternative medicine would matter much more in this case. And that may explain why the death rate in Guangdong (<4%) is significantly lower than the rest of places, including Beijing. And nice, central-aired modern hospital building is definitely another big minus since SARS virus would be much less infectious when there is fresh air in the room

To: Biomaven who wrote (197)	4/22/2003 5:03:12 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 4232

Biom, that NY Times article was ridiculous. The death rate has not increased. The death rate a few weeks ago was obviously going to be about 7% [the upper bound was defined at about 10% by those recovered compared with those dead]. People get sick, then die. So comparing those sick with those dead distorts the picture [especially in the initial stages, when everyone is sick, but none have died]. I'm surprised the doctors don't understand the arithmetic, but maybe they were misreported by ignorant journalists, who are bewildered by numbers and statistics. Anyway, here's my comment on that article.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=18867524 Mqurice