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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (201)	4/22/2003 10:22:09 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

IJ, Yes, I recall your post about the upper bound now. Mild cases that don't get into the denominator are of course a double-edged sword - they imply a lower mortality rate but make it more likely that the outbreak will not be contained (assuming that these mild cases can still spread the disease). There are two possible explanations for mild cases - one is that the infected individual has some innate resistance, the second is that we are dealing with a milder strain of the disease. The US experience to date hints at the latter. Now that I think more about it, there is actually a third possibility that fits the facts - that there is just one strain, but those infected by a superspreader get the disease more severely, likely because they got a bigger initial dose of the virus. Remember that the entire Canada outbreak came from one infected superspreader, aided only by some sloppy medical measures. Peter