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Politics : Moderate Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rrufff who wrote (545)	4/22/2003 12:20:46 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20773

The US priority will be one Iraq no matter how long we have to babysit and how much we have to "direct" the democratic development. For two basic reasons - Turkey will go ape if they see an independent Kurdistan on their border (which would pressure Turkish Kurds to join them). In the south, the Shiites could give Iran a lot of influence over a big chunk of oil and an area we don't want more Iranian influence in, at least not until they evolve into a bunch we can deal with (a la China). I doubt the Shiites could impose their rule on the other groups with no army or other organized force to subdue them. Fragmentation is the biggest risk.