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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (236967)	4/22/2003 2:59:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

mrci.com for me, always the best ongoing information on currencies. My outlook? 1. Dollar drops 20%. 2. Imports become 20% more expensive. 3.Oil rises 20% in real terms and another 20% from dollar devaluation, meaning $40 crude. 4. Natural gas stays above $7 and spikes from time to time to $10. 5. Rising energy costs force rising domestic prices, on top of rising import prices. 6. CPI and PPI start rising around 1% a month, and inflation becomes undeniable. 7. Savers start shunning the long bonds; interest rates rise. 8. The Fed reluctantly starts to match increases in interest rates abroad as the dollar keeps falling. 9. Long bonds begin a long decline. 10. Stock prices grind lower, dropping towards 5000 on the Dow. 11. Trillions of dollars of seeming wealth evaporate. 12. Holders of the Rydex Juno Fund get the giggles.