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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (17802)4/22/2003 5:07:56 PM
From: Cactus Jack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
JW,

Seen this?

From Cramer

This rally is based on FUNDAMENTALS
October's Value Lesson Still Holds
We bottomed in October. No, let me put it another way: What the heck happened that we fell as low as we did in October? Those declines look shocking now. Those prices look like gigantic gifts that could stand for years.

As we listen to earnings calls describing quarters upon quarters in which things have gotten better, as we take company after company off the critical list, as we look back at what has happened in the last six months, only one thing really stands out: Stocks got way too cheap last fall, and they very well still may be too cheap.

***

That leaves me to conclude something I should have realized sooner: This rally is based on the fundamentals. We haven't even seen the post-Iraq rally yet. We haven't even seen the rally that will occur when we become the swing member of OPEC. We haven't seen the rally that will occur if the president gets half of the tax package on dividends.

And we aren't going back to where we were in October. We probably aren't going to Dow 12,000 anytime soon, but the more I look at these numbers, the more I keep thinking that Dow 9500 could be within reach by the end of the year.

thestreet.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (17802)4/22/2003 5:26:37 PM
From: tonka552000  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
"...if only gentleman clubs didnt accept mastercards !!!..."

but they must... :)

I see the same thing with VIX and VXN...yes, I can see the complacency going further...but, ultimately it ends...

It kills me the earnings reports are now "solid"...have they priced in pensions, unions, healthcare, no pricing power...my feeling is the bear has only begun... my self-preservation mechanisms pray I'm wrong...

Have a friend who just accepted job selling tech to the Fed's...has no background or experience with pubilc sector...but we (friends) coached him for the interview...he got the job...now he's in a panic...two other friends just got laid off...oh well...



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (17802)4/22/2003 5:29:35 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
there just aren't many "needle" bottoms in the VIX

stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

the closest recently was in Sept 00 ... more likely than not we have a little while at higher levels here -- bouncing around and probably going higher before we turn down -- talking only near term. Doesn't mean that in two or three weeks we can't be swooning-- just that tomorrow is a pretty low probability