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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (297)	4/22/2003 9:44:41 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 4232

the decision in Hong Kong to reopen their schools The leveling off of cases is certainly encouraging. But it's pretty dangerous in my view to do anything based on a few days of declining hospitalizations. I would think that during the very early stages of an epidemic you might easily see some peaks and valleys, with wave length a few days more than the incubation period. (Basically each cohort of infected patients spreads it again and the next cohort of patients arrive later). If I were in charge I would have waited another few weeks to make sure before reopening schools. If they end up having to close schools again that would certainly shake public confidence. But if Hong Kong can effectively control SARS, albeit subject to some isolated outbreaks from travellers from the mainland, then that would be very encouraging news indeed. Peter